Peter Rall, Head of Newington's German partner agency, Kohl PR, looks at the problems facing Angela Merkel after September's federal election.

Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel’s fourth term will probably be her most difficult. There are several reasons for this. For one, the election success of the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) shows that the country is divided. The election results show that though the Berlin Wall is gone, new walls have been created - between city and state, rich and poor, old and young, online and offline, as Federal President Walter Steinmeier said on the anniversary of German unification. And he could have added: between East and West. How Angela Merkel plans to overcome this divide and whether she has a plan for this is still unknown. The AfD result of 12.6 percent was above all else fuelled by Angela Merkel’s open refugee policy, which even pushed core voters in her own party to the AfD. On this issue too, the Chancellor has yet to offer any answers.

Angela Merkel must indicate how to deal with these questions in the negotiations for establishing the so-called Jamaica coalition. Their outcome and duration are undecided. Experts anticipate that negotiations will take at least until Christmas because the potential coalition partners have very differing interests. These are Merkel´s Christian Democrats, their Bavarian sister party the CSU, the Greens and the Liberals. The Christian Social Union is the most alarmed by the outcome of the parliamentary elections. Used to a regular share of around 50 percent of the vote in Bavaria, the CSU has slipped to less than 40 percent one year before the state election. Now they fear for their absolute majority in the regional parliament and have already announced their intention to strengthen the right flank in coalition negotiations. The magic word is “Obergrenze” - the cap on the number refugees. So far this cap has been a taboo for Angela Merkel. The compromise could lie in an immigration law, which Liberals and Greens have been demanding for a long time.

There are also other controversial issues. These include domestic security, which, like refugee policy, was a decisive topic for many voters. The Greens and Conservatives are opposing one another on this and it will be difficult to find a compromise. Another point of conflict could be European policy. The demand of the French President Emmanuel Macron for an own budget for the Eurozone is divisive. The Greens seem to be open to this, the Liberals are sceptical and Angela Merkel is keeping her cards close to her chest on this one. And Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble is preparing to say goodbye to the Finance Ministry. He is taking on the role of President in the German Bundestag.

Angela Merkel is under pressure as the CDU and CSU have had their worst results in a parliamentary election since 1949 with barely over 30 percent of the vote and losses of more than eight percent. Her position is made worse by the fact that she actually must engage with more than four parties in the negotiations. In her own party, the CDU, the conservative wing has strengthened over the past few years in answer to her strategy of taking more and more social democratic positions. The most recent example being marriage for all. So conservative and liberal Christian Democrats will be just as much at the negotiating table as liberal and left wing Greens, Free Democrats and conservative Christian Socialists. The Jamaica coalition is looking to be a colourful alliance.

The coalition negotiations won’t start until after the state election in Lower Saxony on 15th October. Until then none of the parties will rise above the parapet with possible compromises. However, the first considerations about who will fill the ministry posts are already seeping through. The CSU will claim the Ministry of the Interior and the subject of domestic security for themselves, the Greens will want to be in charge of climate protection and possibly the Foreign Office and the Liberals will probably claim the Finance Ministry.

Whether there is an alternative to Jamaica is up to the Social Democrats. They have announced that they definitely want to be in opposition. This would mean re-elections in the event of coalition negotiations collapsing. But some do not rule out the possibility of them sitting at the negotiating table - provided that the union’s candidate for Chancellor is no longer Angela Merkel.