Business as usual expected from elections in Norfolk, albeit with interesting sub-plots

Unusually, all-out elections take place on 2 May in all of the five district councils in Norfolk, as well as Norwich City Council and Great Yarmouth Borough Council.

The five districts elect all of their councillors every four year s- the last time being in 2015. Norwich and Great Yarmouth have historically elected a third of their councillors in three out of every four years. Councillors in Great Yarmouth recently made the decision to move to all-out elections, while in Norwich the elections will be fought on new ward boundaries, hence all councillors are up for election this year. Norwich will revert back to 'elections by thirds' next year.

With every councillor up for election at such a volatile time in British politics, there might appear to be scope for major change in the running of councils. But in practice, we can anticipate a 'business as usual' outcome in most of Norfolk.

Breckland, Broadland, King's Lynn & West Norfolk and South Norfolk District Councils all have huge Conservative majorities, which they are unlikely to be in danger of losing.

The focus of the elections in Norfolk therefore falls on the other three contests in the county. We analyse the context and potential outcomes below.

Great Yarmouth Borough Council

Great Yarmouth is currently run by a majority Conservative administration, who hold 22 out 39 seats. The remaining seats are held by Labour (15) and one Independent councillor (with one vacant seat).

The last time some of the seats were elected, they were won by UKIP, who were the second largest group on the council as recently as 2016. However, following a mass defection of most UKIP councillors to the Conservatives in 2017 the UKIP presence on the council has disappeared. Since then the political dynamic in Yarmouth has been reset to a two-party contest between the Conservatives and Labour, with the former UKIP votes up for grabs.

In a very strong Leave area, it will be interesting to see if there is a significant impact on the Conservative vote over their handling of Brexit. If there is, it is unclear who will benefit. Labour, whose Brexit credentials are certainly no stronger than the Conservatives don't look in a position to take advantage. There are only a handful of Independent candidates. And a skeleton UKIP are standing in only two wards, where if they do well it will likely be at Labour's expense.

As such, a renewed, and potentially enhanced Conservative majority is probably the most likely outcome for Great Yarmouth.

North Norfolk District Council

In 2015, voters in North Norfolk elected the Conservatives with a majority of seats in a council with a significant Liberal Democrat presence. The Conservatives won 33 of the 48 seats against the Liberal Democrats' 15.

But since then infighting amongst the Conservative Group followed by a series of defections, resignations and by-election defeats, the Conservatives have lost their majority and control of the council. They now hold just 19 seats, equal with the Liberal Democrats and there are 9 Independents (defect-ees from the Conservatives). The council is now controlled by a Liberal Democrat-led administration.

This Conservative implosion could have the impact of shepherding in a new Liberal Democrat administration in May. North Norfolk voters have a habit of turning to them when they are fed up with the Conservatives.

But for the Liberal Democrats there is the additional dynamic that their pro-Remain stance is at odds with the almost 60% of voters in North Norfolk who voted to Leave.

A difficult one to call in North Norfolk but expect the Liberal Democrats to improve on their results from the last council elections in 2015.

Norwich City Council

Don't expect any change in the control of Norwich City Council this year- it's a red island in the Norfolk sea of blue (and a little bit of North Norfolk yellow!) But there are two things which make the election there interesting.

The first is the potential for a slowing of the Green Party demise. The Greens have been the second largest party on Norwich City Council since 2010, with 14 seats on the council at their peak. Since 2016 the Greens have haemorrhaged seats to Labour, likely as a consequence of Labour's move to the left under Jeremy Corbyn, which has appealed to much of Norwich's university, academic and young professional population.

Labour now dominate the council with 31 of 39 seats, which included five gains from the Greens in 2018. The Greens now hold just five seats.

Had the elections this year been fought as previously with just one councillor to elect in each ward, we could have seen Labour winning again in wards which the Greens had come to see as their strongholds like Nelson, Thorpe Hamlet, Town Close and Mancroft.

With three councillors to be elected the Greens will be hopeful that left-leaning voters cast one of their three votes for the Green Party. This is a tactic they have deployed in other areas, like Brighton & Hove, where they have been strong and where all-out elections are held every four years. They will ask voters to 'lend' one of their votes to the Greens hoping that Labour-inclined voters will do so given that the Greens 'share their values'. The goal is to gather enough 'split' votes to get one of their candidates elected in the ward. This won't affect control of the council but may enable the Greens to maintain more than just a rump of a group on the council.

The other issue to note may be the impact of the decision of the City Council's Planning Committee late last year to narrowly approve a plan to redevelop Norwich's Anglia Square with retail, leisure facilities and more than 1,200 homes. The application by Weston Homes was controversial, with campaigners concerned about the impact on the city's heritage assets. The decision has now been called-in by the Government after lobbying by Historic England, leaving it in serious doubt.

The Anglia Square decision has prompted local debate, not just over the heritage impact. Critics have attacked the provision of 10% of residential units for affordable housing, compared to the council's target of 30%. The developer argued the development was not viable with more. The acceptance of that argument by Labour councillors in particular has caused a backlash amongst party members in the city who say that councillors should demand more from developers to meet affordable housing needs.

Don't be surprised to see Labour leaders at Norwich City Council, who have sought to be pragmatic, taking a firmer line with developers on affordable housing.

Conclusion

There won’t be significant change to the political control of councils in Norfolk after the elections on 2 May. Realistically, North Norfolk may be the only council to have a significantly different make-up from the previous set of elections.

But there are some other sub-plots to look out for, particularly in Great Yarmouth and Norwich, which make the elections in Norfolk worth looking out for.