With many postal votes already cast for the European Elections it is useful to consider how this election may shape the immediate political future of British politics.

As it is likely to only elect temporary MEPs it is much more an indication of peoples' frustration with the current political climate than it is an issue about who is best to represent the British people within Brussels.

Therefore four things strike me about this election.

First, I believe the major political party to most benefit from this election will be the Liberal Democrats. As the only UK-wide political party to have a clear message on Brexit, their message is cutting through and is reinforced by literature which is both clear and concise. Many Remain supporting friends I have spoken to within the two traditional main parties have suggested that the Lib Dems will be the repository of their protest vote, but they are reluctant to admit this publicly so current polling may well under-represent the Lib Dem vote. It will be very interesting to see if the Euro polling numbers transfer across to the national polls, particularly when a new leader of the Lib Dems is announced, whom many expect to be the Scottish Liberal Democrat MP Jo Swinson.

Second, clarity of message is everything. The Brexit Party has come from nowhere to be leading in the polls. Their name makes clear what they are about (note to Change UK) and they have a very distinct and clear message. I expect the Brexit Party to poll at about where they claim to be at the moment somewhere north of 30%. What is also interesting is how the Brexit Party is targeting a lot of their engagement in the Leave voting Labour areas around the country. It will be fascinating to see the impact on Labour post the Euro election of many people breaking the habit of a lifetime to not vote Labour and how this will impact on politics going forward.

Third, if the Greens cannot do well in the Euro Elections this time then they may never do well in the UK. With a focus on the environment after the demonstrations by Extinction Rebellion and Sir David Attenborough’s TV programme on climate change the Greens should be riding high in the polls. Although predicted figures of around 10% for the Greens in Euro elections are above their normal levels of support, I think deep down the Green Party Leaders and activists will want to see an even bigger breakthrough in this election.

Labour will do poorly in Scotland. With ‘Remainers’ finding a home in the SNP and the Lib Dems providing a clear Brexit alternative it will be very surprising if Labour does not lose ground north of the border. A very low profile Scottish leader, a confused message on Europe and a weakened political organisation mean that Labour will be lucky to hold onto third place in Scotland behind the Brexit Party and the SNP. I expect to see Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems all fighting for third place which would harm a pro-Union Campaign in any imminent Referendum.