Newington looks ahead to the local council elections on 2 May, which to the dismay of most party activists from across the political spectrum will be fought amid the cloud of Brexit.

Elections to local councils will take place in almost every part of England in less than four weeks’ time. 259 borough, district and unitary councils are up for election either in their entirety or a third of their councillors. Six local authorities and one new combined authority will also be choosing directly-elected mayors. Only 24 councils and the 32 London boroughs are without elections this year.

As party activists across the country take to the doorsteps, unfortunately for them there is only one game in town.

Brexit dominates everything. This is much to the frustration of activists who no doubt want to tell the story of the achievements their party has made at the town hall, or how if they were in charge local services would be run for the better.

It is difficult being a political campaigner at the moment. No matter what party they are from, all are bearing the brunt of voters' frustration at the inability of the UK's government and parliamentarians to resolve the Brexit issue.

This is how we head into the local elections. Not weighing up who has the best offer to deliver in areas like housing, regeneration and social care but considering which party stands to suffer the least from the perceived failure of the political system over Brexit.

What can the political parties expect?

Conservatives

In the context of their Brexit troubles and party splits at a national level, it is likely that Conservative Party activists will be approaching these local elections with the most trepidation, with fears of a wipe-out.

But are they right to feel so pessimistic? On the face of it, it is hard to imagine a governing party experiencing such monumental public splits and indiscipline coming through a set of mid-term elections with anything less than a total thrashing. Recent historical examples would seem to point to that outcome - look at the Conservative government in the mid-1990s prior to their big defeat in 1997 or Labour's woes under Gordon Brown in elections in the run-up to 2010.

But on the other hand, while recent polls have begun to show a narrow lead for Labour over the Conservatives, this is a relatively recent trend occurring only at the very depths of the Brexit chaos. A wave of council by-elections in March actually delivered some positive results for the Conservatives with swings in their favour and in some cases making gains in key areas like Thurrock in Essex. And the result of the parliamentary by-election in Newport last week actually saw Labour's vote share suffer more than the Conservatives.

So, bad as things may appear on the surface it is by no means certain that hundreds of Conservative councillors will be wiped out and that they will lose control of councils far and wide.

If it's going to be a bad day for the Conservatives expect to see councils like Broxtowe, Redditch and Warwick in the Midlands, Basildon in Essex and St Albans in Hertfordshire to feature amongst those where they lose control.

A good night could see them winning majority control of councils like Thurrock and Colchester in Essex and Boston in Lincolnshire. But despite decent by-election results in March it seems almost certain that the Conservative focus will be on defending vulnerable councils, not seeking to take control of new ones.

Labour

History suggests the country's main opposition party should be about to clean up with the government in such a mess. But these are not normal times. Labour are not immune to the difficulties of Brexit, needing as they do to reconcile the conflict of the bulk of their members' desire for a People's Vote with many Labour voting areas in the North and Midlands having voted heavily to Leave in 2016. And the party will be worried that their vote share was down by almost 13% in the by-election in Newport last week, an even bigger hit on their vote than the Conservatives experienced.

Add to this the wider internal problems around the handling of anti-Semitism within the party, Labour are not without significant problems, which have put voters off.

They will need to be winning control of several councils to call these elections a success. Wins for Labour in Brighton on the south coast, Gravesham in Kent, and Worcester in the West Midlands could signal a good night alongside unseating independent directly-elected mayors in Copeland in Cumbria and Mansfield in the East Midlands.

Liberal Democrats

Historically the Liberal Democrats have tended to do well at mid-term council elections by picking up protest votes from those angry with the government. That trend has been far less strong since they went into coalition with the Conservatives in 2010 and they have suffered at the ballot box as a consequence.

They have seen signs of recovery since then including wins at council by-elections and winning councils like South Cambridgeshire, a strong Remain area, last year.

As the only established party that is still unswervingly Remain supporting, they would appear best placed to soak up the frustration of voters keen to see another referendum. But in general their poll numbers are very static hovering either side of 10%.

The Liberal Democrats continue to be an effective local campaigning force and will target their efforts on councils that are within their grasp like St Albans. But these elections are unlikely to see them surge across the country like they did in mid-term elections before 2010.

The ‘others’

Given the Conservatives' Brexit problems and Labour's apparent inability to significantly capitalise, the elections on 2 May could be one for the 'others'.

It would not be surprising if voters, disillusioned with the failure of the political system over Brexit, looked for other outlets to express their frustration.

As such, an organised UKIP (or Brexit Party) would be in a strong position to surge as they did at mid-term elections between 2010 and 2015. But their demise since the referendum has put them in a weak position to fight these elections organisationally, with relatively few candidates actually making it on to ballot papers.

The Independent Group, led by the MPs who have recently defected from Labour and the Conservatives, under their new monitor of 'Change UK' might have been an outlet for disillusioned Remainers. But they also lack the organisation and candidates to fight an election effectively. Strategically it may be too early for them to make enough of an impact to win many seats, which could lead to claims that the new party had failed before it has even truly got off the ground.

As is always the case at local elections, we will see Independent candidates pop-up across the country, often well-known local community activists with a local following and connections. There could be an increased trend this time for voters to look to local independents who they believe will stand up for their area rather than the candidates of the main parties.

Conclusion

These local elections are very unpredictable. It would be easy to predict a Conservative meltdown over Brexit. But it is by no means certain looking at recent by-election results or opinion polls that that is what is on the horizon.

If the Conservatives are to have a disastrous set of the elections, the question is who benefits at their expense? Labour have their own problems with Brexit and internal troubles.

The Liberal Democrats have had some positive elections results in recent years, but their poll ratings are fairly static and they still suffer to an extent from their participation in the coalition government with the Conservatives from 2010 to 2015.

UKIP might well be successful where they are standing candidates. But they have little momentum and few candidates going into these elections due to a lack of organisation and years of demise and in-fighting. So it is unlikely they will make a serious impact as they did in elections between 2010 and 2015.

With no obvious single recipient of anger with the Conservatives, this may just help them to hold on to more councils and seats than many of their activists may feel is possible.

Newington will be focusing in on the election contests in specific parts of the country in the next few weeks in the run-up to 2 May. If there is a specific council you are interested in drop us a line for analysis and thoughts on potential election outcomes.