Legislative expert Chris White (Newington Communications' Managing Director of Public Affairs) explains what will happen tonight and tomorrow in Parliament as MPs vote on Theresa May's deal.
Tonight the House of Commons will finally vote on the Prime Minister’s Withdrawal Agreement, but not before four amendments selected by the Speaker are voted on. The order of amendments, and the likely time that they will be voted on is as follows:
1. Official Opposition amendment tabled by Jeremy Corbyn – vote at 7pm, result at 7.15pm.
2. SNP amendment tabled by Ian Blackford – vote at 7.15pm, result at 7.30pm.
3. Backbench Conservative amendment tabled by Edward Leigh – vote at 7.30pm, result 7.45pm.
4. Backbench Conservative amendment tabled by John Baron – vote at 7.45pm, result 8pm.
5. The main Government motion on the negotiated Withdrawal Agreement – vote at 8pm, result around 8.15pm.
If any amendment gains a majority in the House of Commons, and passes a second vote (the motion as amended) then there will be no vote on the Government’s main motion. If all amendments fail to gain a majority, there will be a vote on the Government’s Withdrawal Agreement.
All amendments are likely to be defeated, and the main Government motion will also be defeated, probably by around 150-200 votes.
In the immediate aftermath of the vote, we are likely to see two things. Firstly, the PM will almost certainly make an emergency statement to the House of Commons, setting out her plans. She is expected to announce that she will return to Brussels and seek further concessions from the EU.
Jeremy Corbyn is also under pressure to call a no-confidence vote by supporters and MPs. If he does do so, then a debate and vote on a motion under the terms of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act will take place on Wednesday. As the DUP has said they will back the Government, it is likely that the Conservative Party and DUP voting together will be enough to save the Government.
If the Government loses the no-confidence vote, then the House of Commons has 14 days to find an alternative Government which must win a motion “That this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government.” If this fails, then a General Election must be held immediately.
The Commons has already agreed that in the event of the Withdrawal Agreement being defeated in tonight’s vote, then the Government must “table a motion” by Monday 21st January setting out what its Plan B is. Technically speaking, the Government only has to table a motion in order to fulfil its commitments, but politically it is expected that the PM will seek a debate and vote on its motion.
If it does so, then again, technically speaking, the Government only has to allocate 90 minutes for a debate, and only one amendment can be selected. To do this would be politically unthinkable, and therefore the Government must lay another motion setting out what the rules for the debate on Monday 21st will be, which will itself be open to amendments and votes. In private, Downing Street is preparing to table its Withdrawal Agreement again for MPs to consider.
Remember that the UK will automatically leave the EU on 29th March under s.20(2) of the European Union Withdrawal Act. Legislation is required to stop the UK leaving, or the Government must extend Article 50 (with agreement of the EU) or unilaterally revoke Article 50.
MPs have begun to draw up a number of plans to take control of the Brexit process from Government and give it to Parliament. The most prominent of these plans is by the Conservative MP Nick Boles, who, with former Ministers Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan, is seeking to put the cross-party Liaison Committee in charge of what happens next. The plan is as follows:
1. If the PM’s deal is defeated, to table an amendment to motion on Monday 21st January
2. This will seek to amend Standing Orders in the Commons to give priority to backbench business over Government business for one day.
3. He will then put a Bill, published today, through the Commons to give the Liaison Committee the power to agree an action plan and put it to the Commons for a vote .
4. If the Commons rejects the action plan, the PM will be mandated to ask the EU for an extension of A50.
There are a number of holes in the plan, not least that the Chair of the Liaison Committee, Sarah Wollaston MP, was not consulted, and procedurally it would be difficult, though not impossible, to achieve. The Government is unlikely to co-operate.
Tonight and tomorrow are likely to be extremely dramatic, with the Government losing their Meaningful Vote by the biggest margin since Ramsay MacDonald in 1924, and subsequently facing a no confidence motion and the risk of an imminent General Election.
That said, the Government is unlikely to lose the no-confidence vote, as it is supported by the DUP. Therefore Monday 21st January is the next key date in the calendar, when the PM must table a motion in the Commons on what she does next, and face challenges from across the House as to what to do next.
Newington will be doing a conference call with Chris White, Managing Director of Public Affairs on Monday morning. As a former Special Adviser to Patrick McLoughlin as Government Chief Whip and two Leaders of the House of Commons in William Hague and Andrew Lansley, he is a legislative expert and will be able to answer your questions on what happens next in the Commons. More details will follow tomorrow.
