Great Grimsby

Grimsby was one of the strongest leave-supporting Labour-held seats, with 72% of constituents opting to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum. Voters may well punish the Labour Party for offering a second referendum with the option to remain, especially as Melanie Onn, the incumbent Labour MP, advocated for remaining in the EU.

That being said, Ms Onn was one of the Labour MPs who proved willing to support Mr Johnson’s Brexit deal, and might be rewarded by her constituents for that. If the Conservatives hope to take the seat, the presence of a Brexit Party candidate may not do them any favours.

However, it may not be the Conservatives that suffer from the rise of the Brexit Party in this seat. A recent Survation poll suggested that Ms Onn was badly trailing her Conservative rival. The Conservative candidate mustered 44%, a 2% increase on the party's 2017 vote share, with Ms Onn on 31%, which is down 18% on 2017. The Brexit Party candidate achieved 17% in this poll, suggesting that the party's strategy of targeting Labour voters is having the desired effect. 

Candidates:

  • Melanie Onn (Labour) [incumbent]
  • Lia Nici (Conservative)
  • Ian Barfield (Liberal Democrat)
  • Loyd Emmerson (Green)
  • Christopher Barker (Brexit Party)
  • Nigel Winn (Independent)