Newington's Daniel Stern looks at the local elections and what the results might mean for the upcoming general election

With all the excitement around the snap general election called for June, you could be forgiven for forgetting that there are local elections taking place later this week. However, Theresa May’s announcement has given the elections an added significance and will likely have all eyes across the country looking for an indication of how the national political landscape is likely to change when the nation goes to the polls in June.

Not since 1992 has a General Election taken place out of sync with the local elections of the year. In that case, the local elections took place one month after John Major’s triumph over Neil Kinnock and saw Labour receive its lowest vote share for 10 years on the way to losing 402 council seats. Labour’s position since Corbyn’s election has frequently drawn comparisons to that period in the Party’s history and, if the polls are anything to go by, the current Labour leader is staring down the barrel of a similar result at the ballot box – albeit on a smaller scale due to the fact that there are less councils with elections this year.

It’s initially worth noting that local elections differ greatly from general elections and the former will not provide an accurate representation of what share of parliamentary seats we can expect each party to win. To begin with, not all regions have local elections this year, London being perhaps the most notable example. More generally, turnout in local elections is much lower, local issues come to the fore and often they can be seen as an opportunity to express dissatisfaction with the governing party. This is slightly different in years where they take place at the same time as the General Election, where voters are more likely to vote the same way in both elections. While these differences will skew results in terms of predicting the likely share of parliamentary seats, the local elections will still provide a useful indicator on some key areas.

Places like Cornwall, a unitary authority, holding all out elections in the south west will be particularly worth watching. As an authority with a traditionally strong Lib Dem vote and a population that voted for Brexit, a major swing to either the Lib Dems or the Conservatives could provide an early indication of which way national opinion is leaning in an election that the Prime Minister has sought to frame entirely on Brexit.  Election results in Wales and Scotland should also prove interesting and will provide some insight into whether we can expect the big Conservative successes predicted in recent polling. 

Regardless of the results, national parties will be on the lookout for early signs of where to allocate their time and resources in a shortened General Election campaign where days can’t afford to be wasted. Corbyn could certainly use a boost to help counter those who have already written off Labour’s chances. If the Conservatives perform as has been predicted, we can expect an emboldened Conservative Party with campaign teams on the ground that have renewed confidence that on June 8 they can make further gains in traditional Labour heartlands.

Newington will be monitoring the all of the local election results. If you would be interested in receiving a briefing on a particular election, please get in touch.

Local elections will be taking place on Thursday 4 May. In England, all out elections are taking place in 27 county councils, seven unitary councils and one metropolitan borough. All 32 local authorities in Scotland will also go to the ballot along with all 22 local authorities in Wales. Six elections will be taking place to determine the new metro mayors in six combined authorities; Greater Manchester, Liverpool City Region, Tees Valley, West Midlands, West of England and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough. A further two mayoral elections are taking place for single local authority areas Doncaster and North Tyneside.