Newington's Toby North provides analysis on the less publicised Mayoral elections taking place in May

While much of the media attention has been focused on two of the great cities of the North West, (Liverpool and Manchester) and their forthcoming Mayoral elections, you may not be aware that they are not the only Mayoral elections going on, with contests for the control of four other new combined authorities also taking place on 4th May. Here we give you a rundown of the contenders for each post, a summary of their powers and our analysis on the likely outcomes in each region. 

West Midlands

Area: Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton (with other non-constituent and observer members)

Powers: Compulsory purchase powers for development, consolidated transport budget, adult skills budget

Candidates: Siôn Simon (Labour), Andy Street (Conservative), Beverley Nielsen (Liberal Democrat), James Burn (Green) and Pete Durnell (UKIP)                                                               

Analysis: Having intentionally not called itself ‘Greater Birmingham’, expectation and speculation remains high over whether or not the authority will have the ‘brand power’ to truly be the ‘Midlands Engine for Growth’ that it aspires to be. This should really be a comfortable Labour win in a region where the party leads six of seven of the constituent local authorities. However, a combination of Labour’s dire national poll ratings and the Conservatives’ smart selection of Andy Street (former Managing Director of John Lewis as well as the Chair of the LEP who took a prominent role in driving forward the devolution agenda) as their candidate has put them in serious contention. Siôn Simon, Labour’s candidate, does not suffer from a lack of profile as a former MP, MEP and Junior Minister, but his campaign has been far from smooth so far, with Unite the Union withdrawing campaign funding over an internal party row.

There has been a recent history of Conservative control in Birmingham, Dudley and Walsall and with strong local concern regarding development in Sutton Coldfield, the Conservative vote in these areas could swing the election.

Prospects: One to watch. If any of these contests is going to be close, it will be the West Midlands.

Cambridgeshire & Peterborough

Area: Peterborough, Cambridge, East Cambridgeshire, Fenland, Huntingdonshire, South Cambridgeshire

Powers: £170million affordable housing grant, strategic planning, compulsory purchase powers, mayoral development corporations, consolidated transport budget, adult skills budget, post-16 education. Currently planning for health and social care integration

Candidates: James Palmer (Conservative), Julie Howell (Green), Kevin Price (Labour), Rod Cantrill (Liberal Democrat) and Paul Bullen (UKIP)                  

Analysis: There has been considerable debate about the nature of this Mayoral area with grand proposals for a Mayoralty covering the entire Eastern Region previously mooted. Reduced to just Cambridgeshire, there is now a stronger drive towards a Mayoralty. Although Cambridgeshire County Council is in No Overall Control this is expected to change in May with an anticipated return to a Conservative administration. With the exception of a possible Liberal Democrat bounce in some areas of East Cambridgeshire there is likely to be little threat to the Conservatives here.

Prospects: Conservative victory. Cambridge and Peterborough aside, this is true blue territory.

West of England

Area: Bath & North East Somerset, Bristol, South Gloucestershire

Powers: Strategic planning, compulsory purchase powers, mayoral development corporations, consolidated transport budget, adult skills budget, post-16 education

Candidates: Tim Bowles (Conservative), Darren Hall (Green Party), Lesley Mansell (Labour), Stephen Williams (Liberal Democrats) and Aaron Foot (UKIP)

Analysis: The West of England is a diverse combination of authorities taking in the wealth of Bath, the rural Southern element of Gloucestershire and the politically diverse Bristol. Labour took the Bristol Mayoralty and in turn overall control of the authority in 2016. However, the Liberal Democrat and Conservative dominance in Bath and North East Somerset and South Gloucestershire makes it unlikely that Labour will be in contention to win considering their currently dire national polling.

With the Liberal Democrats fielding former Bristol MP Stephen Williams, the party has the highest profile candidate of the major parties and could pull off a shock result.

Prospects: Leaning Conservative however, the Labour and Liberal Democrat transfer votes could lead to a shock.

Tees Valley

Area: Darlington, Harlepool, Middlesborough, Redcar & Cleveland, Stockton-on-Tees

Powers: Mayoral development corporations, consolidated transport budget, adult skills budget

Candidates: Sue Jeffrey (Labour), Ben Houchen (Conservative), Chris Foote Wood (Liberal Democrat) and John Tennant (UKIP)

Analysis: Taking into account the Labour heartlands of the Tees Valley, in normal times this would have been considered a strong Labour hold. The Labour vote has weakened throughout the Valley however, this has not yet led to any significant Labour losses to date. The significant vote throughout the Valley in favour of leaving the European Union could lead to voters seeking to punish Labour.

The Conservatives have pledged to nationalise Teeside Airport and abolish the scandal hit Cleveland Police Force which could draw some of the popular vote away from Labour but it is unlikely to be enough to prise the Mayoralty out of Labour hands.

Prospects: Likely to be the election with the lowest turnout. It would be another electoral disaster in their previous northern heartland for Labour were they not to win.

Sheffield

Area: Sheffield, Barnsley, Bassetlaw, Chesterfield, Doncaster, Rotherham

Powers: Strategic planning, compulsory purchase powers, mayoral development corporations, consolidated transport budget, adult skills budget, post-16 education. Currently planning for health and social care integration.

Analysis: Delayed due to a legal challenge launched by Derbyshire County Council based on the failure to consult properly on Chesterfield’s inclusion. If and when this Mayoralty is given the go ahead it is likely to be a strong Labour victory in one of the strongest Labour heartlands. Wider discussions are taking place relating to a Yorkshire wide devolution deal which could see a Sheffield centred region kicked well and truly into the long grass.

Prospects: Mayoral Election postponed due to legal challenge.

Do you want to know more about how the combined authorities will influence planning and development in each area? Newington has offices across the United Kingdom and a team of dedicated local consultants. While this article seeks to shine a spotlight on the lesser known Mayoral elections taking place, if you wanted a full briefing or a potential training session on the Liverpool or Manchester Mayor, please get in touch with our Head of North West, Pavitar Mann at [email protected].