Newington's Chris Peacock looks at what the future holds for Greater Manchester’s housing plan.

The Greater Manchester Spatial Framework (GMSF) is the first real test of the devolution powers of the Greater Manchester Combined Authority. We all knew that the GMSF would be politically sensitive, but now the gloves are coming off and we are seeing almost universal opposition to the plans for housing across Greater Manchester for the next 20 years. The failure of the ten GMCA councils to effectively communicate the proposals and the rationale behind them to the public has left the future of the Framework in its current form in significant doubt.

Mayoral candidates, MPs, and councillors have all  held public meetings, marches and encouraged the public to take part in the now-closed consultation to show their dissatisfaction – actually no, their utter contempt for the proposals laid out in the GMSF draft plan. The leaders of the ten local authorities are the only significant political actors showing any kind of support. However, at a time when robust leadership and a coherent communications plan is needed more than ever to turn the tide of public opinion, their support remains noticeably muted (with the exception of the Conservative candidate for GM Mayor, Cllr Sean Anstee).

At one of his many manifesto building events, Andy Burnham used the opportunity to announce his response to the GMSF, declaring that whilst he supported the principle of a Greater Manchester wide plan for housing, he did not support the content as it currently stands. He advocated a radical re-writing of the plan with a desire to see “no net loss of green belt”.

He argued that the plan is currently heavily steered towards private developers who want to build large high-end family homes and doesn’t focus enough on affordable homes. Burnham added that the proposals should also look to where high skill industries will be located and not just areas for warehouses for low paid and low skilled distribution jobs.

The event was well timed with the Liberal Democratic candidate for GM Mayor, Cllr Jane Brophy, calling for GMSF to be scrapped entirely citing that, “it should be for local people in each area to decide the future of their community, not for a secret group at Manchester Town Hall to present a completed plan.”

The most telling comment from Andy Burnham’s manifesto event didn’t actually come from the mayoral candidate himself, but from Cllr Sheila Bailey, Stockport Council’s Executive Member for Communities and Housing. In a Q&A she suggested the scrapping of the GMSF entirely and replacing it with ten local plans agreed individually by the ten boroughs of GM.

The importance of Cllr Bailey’s comments cannot be understated. In Stockport, an authority led by a minority Labour administration, the prospect of the GMSF not being able to gain approval from the Council is ever increasing. Andy Burnham disagreed with her idea, but the sheer fact that the lead member for housing in Stockport would, at a public meeting, shoot down the GMSF in such a way only highlights that the plan is teetering on the edge of a very steep cliff.

So what next for GMSF? Cllr Bailey’s leader in Stockport, Cllr Alex Ganotis, took the opportunity to explain to his council colleague and the public at Andy Burnham’s event that the GMSF was only at the first consultation phase. Following consideration of feedback, the next phase would be displayed before the public in June for another round of consultation. It is almost certain that this message will begin to be quoted by the other nine leaders over the coming days and weeks as they too try to calm the waters of discontent. However, in recent days the “biggest protest march in Manchester” has been planned with the multitude of local protest groups coming together to “make a statement to every council” across GM. Don’t be surprised if a number of Mayoral candidates attend!

The public anger and political scepticism directed at the GMSF has left the plan in an extremely precarious position. The political leadership of GM cannot afford to scrap the plan, but now they are also seeing the strength of opposition towards it growing. Conversely, whilst local residents do not support the existing content in the GMSF, most appreciate the need for additional housing. These two positions need reconciling, sooner rather than later, which can only happen with strong political leadership on this issue. But with the Mayoral election in May creeping ever closer – it is unlikely we will see any whilst there are votes needed to be won.

One of the reasons for the intense opposition has been directly due to the failure of the GMSF and the ten GMCA councils promoting it to explain the proposals and the rationale behind them effectively to the public. The reaction seen in Greater Manchester only serves to highlight the overwhelming need to have a robust, coherent communications plan when liaising with the local community on development issues. Understanding the political sensitivities of the issues at hand and mitigating them is vitally important to the GMSF, and to any business that will inevitably have to engage with the public and politicians. As more decisions are made by the Combined Authority following devolution, coupled with greater awareness and activism amongst the local public, the need for public affairs advice and political insight has never been greater.

For more information on how Newington can help you better understand and manage this new political dynamic, please contact Pavitar Mann, Head of North West, or Chris Peacock, Account Manager, at [email protected] and [email protected] respectively.