Newington's Chris Ricot and Claudia Hyde analyse the impact of the delay to the Government's Housing White Paper and the implications for the UK's development industry.

Sajid Javid MP, the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government, was expected to publish the long-awaited Housing White Paper later this month but its publication looks likely to be further delayed yet again. With only 190,000 homes built last year, the paper was expected to force councils to increase the number of homes they are required to produce, in an effort to reach the Government’s eye-catching target of delivering one million homes by 2020. With government sources indicating the Number 10 were unhappy with the final draft from the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG), with a view that it "needed a few more weeks work", political pressure is continuing to increase on Mr Javid.

He faces the challenge of trying to force councils to increase their targets at a time when local authorities are already struggling to meet existing goals and this further delay indicates that he hasn’t quite managed to get the balance right just yet. With no confirmed publication date now, Newington has identified a number of key areas to look out for which are expected to feature.

Affordable housing

The Autumn Statement announced that £1.4bn will be ear-marked to provide 40,000 new affordable homes, but what this will entail is controversial in itself. Critics have argued that some affordable tenures, such as discounted market rent and “starter homes”, are not genuinely affordable. The Government has come under increased pressure, particularly from the Mayor of London, not only to help “generation rent”, but also to ease the burden on local authorities who are struggling beneath ever-growing social housing waiting lists. Gavin Barwell MP recently reiterated the Government’s commitment to diversifying the housing market, in marked contrast to the previous administration. How the White Paper will deliver this is eagerly-anticipated.

Greenbelt development

Reports have suggested that the White Paper will encourage councils to make more greenbelt land available for housing, something the industry has long called for. This signals that the Government is committed to boosting housing supply, and could unlock exciting opportunities, particularly in the East and North-West of England, where most underdeveloped greenbelt land is located.

This is, however, likely to prompt fierce backlash from councils and MPs from the Prime Minister’s own party. Many greenbelt areas, such as the Home Counties, are Conservative-controlled - including the seats of both May and Javid. Some Tory MPs have privately warned that they are prepared to rebel against the Government if the plans are too aggressive. With the recent consultation on the first draft of the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework demonstrating widespread opposition to greenbelt release, the final legislation will have to be a delicate balancing act.

 Pre-fabricated homes

The White Paper could include measures to incentivise the production of pre-fabricated homes. Now known as “modular homes”, pre-fabricated homes have experienced a somewhat tarnished reputation since their pilot following World War II. However, their popularity has increased at home and abroad: Javid recently visited several pre-fab manufacturers on trips to the Netherlands and Germany, and Lewisham Council has trialled them to house homeless families with supporters noting that they can significantly boost housing supply in a much speedier manner. It is widely expected that government will seek to encourage banks to increase lending to small firms who build houses offsite but it remains to be seen if they will back this up with state funding for this sector.

Neighbourhood Planning

The White Paper is expected to continue DCLG’s efforts to strengthen neighbourhood planning. The Neighbourhood Planning Bill introduced last year set out the Government’s intentions in this regard and this was supported by Gavin Barwell’s ministerial statement in December. Neighbourhood plan policies are now considered up to date in areas where the local authority can demonstrate a three year’s supply of housing, whereas previously they needed to demonstrate a 5 year supply. The fact that this decision is already facing the threat of a legal challenge is unlikely to deter Mr Javid’s team and the White Paper is expected to further the Government’s efforts to bolster neighbourhood planning policies and restore the faith of local communities in the neighbourhood planning process.

Conclusion

Policy announcements so far suggest that the Government is willing to take bold measures to increase housing supply. The Government has confirmed that the White Paper will be “clearly setting out how we plan to build the homes this country needs.” The difficulty for Government will be balancing this with the need to provide strong enough reassurances for Tory backbenchers to take back to their constituencies and a further delay to its publication will only raise fears regarding its content. The Prime Minister has already acquired a reputation for dithering. And time (and patience) is running short...