By Phil Briscoe, Managing Director of Newington Communications

As the last council seat was declared in Whitechapel on the early hours of Saturday morning, it brought to a close a round of local elections that seemed to be largely a non-story. The Labour Party, poised to make huge gains this year, managed a net total of just 77 additional councillors, while the Conservative Party stared defeat in the face to lose just a net 33 councillors. The return of the Liberal Democrats appeared to be exaggerated as they picked up just an extra 75 councillors, and the collapse of UKIP and their loss of all but 3 of their 126 councillors was neither unexpected nor life-changing.

While the Conservatives lost control of six councils, they gained control of four others and while Labour managed to gain control of three councils, they also managed to lose control of three others. Overall, the new municipal year begins with very little difference to the last one – both parties had an almost even vote share last week and the Conservatives still have more councillors across the country than Labour.

The pollsters and pundits pointed to a political meltdown for the Conservatives, but it did not happen. But perhaps the headlines were not the extent of the political results this year and to fully understand the trends, we need to address some of the headline myths this year.

The Conservatives had a good night in London?

The Conservatives may have fought off strong challenges in Westminster and Wandsworth while also taking control of Barnet Council, but the underlying trend should be of much more concern to them. The total number of Conservative councillors in London fell by more than 100 on Thursday to just 511 – the lowest ever level of Conservative representation in London. In the process, the Conservative presence in council chambers across the capital has been further eroded – six councils now do not have a single Conservative representative and in a further nine authorities, the Conservative group has been reduced to a rump of less than ten members. Councils that were controlled relatively recently by the Conservatives, such as Ealing, Redbridge and Hammersmith and Fulham, have all now been transformed to solid Labour majorities. In these three councils, the Conservatives returned just 8, 12 and 11 councillors respectively.

The Conservatives did hold control at Wandsworth, in spite of the unlikely odds, but it could so easily have gone the other way – Labour needed just another 143 votes to deny the Conservatives four of their elected councillors and in the process take away their overall majority on the council. In the process, Labour increased their vote share by more than 6% and polled more votes across Wandsworth than the Conservatives. In Westminster, although the Conservatives retained a convincing majority of seats on the council, Labour were just 1.6% behind on the popular share of the vote across the borough.

Looking ahead to future London-wide elections, it is worth considering the strength of the Labour vote last week – while the Conservatives held a strong majority in Kensington and Chelsea, the whole borough saw a voter turnout of almost 38,000 (across all parties) but in Wandsworth, more than 123,000 people voted just for Labour.

The Conservatives did deliver a successful campaign to hold onto their key councils, but if they are ever to stand a chance of mounting a challenge for future Mayoral or General Elections in the capital, they will need to be asking questions internally about how they arrest their decline in London.

Labour are ready for power at a General Election?

While the Labour vote increased across London, their performance around the country was less than convincing. Key marginal authorities in the midlands and north such as Derby, Redditch, Pendle and Nuneaton and Bedworth swung away from Labour, with the Conservatives proving to be the main beneficiary on the night. In other areas such as Basildon and Peterborough, it was the Conservatives who were the beneficiaries of the councils moving from hung to overall control.

Taking the change in the total number of council seats outside London, Labour managed a net gain of just 17 seats while the Conservatives gained a net 68 councillors – not really the expected pattern for an unpopular mid-term government.

In terms of vote share, Labour had a 16.1% majority over the Conservatives in London, but the two parties were almost neck and neck on 35% each across the country. This stark contrast in performance highlights the electoral hill that Labour still need to climb beyond London.

Liberal Democrats are not yet in contention?

The Liberal Democrats saw their national vote share fall, but their electoral success improved, as they gained control of four councils and added 75 councillors to their tally, taking control of places such as Kingston and South Cambridgeshire. However, the underlying news story is that they began to reappear as contenders in wards across London and the country and position themselves as challengers for the next round of elections. This is what they do best, and buoyed by the Brexit debate and a new generation of members we can expect the Liberal Democrats to be more active locally and to pick off an increasing number of council seats in the years to come.

Overall, the elections on Thursday highlighted a greater polarisation between London and the rest of England. Not just on Brexit, but on housing, crime and public services, the gulf on key issues appears to widen each year, and the challenge for both of the main parties is how to speak to their supporters across the country without galvanising one region at the expense of the other. Based on the results from last week, neither Labour nor the Conservatives know how to do this yet, and another national election would very likely return us to a hung parliament scenario.