This week Newington and Cambre examine the current status of Brexit negotiations with just a month to go before the deadline to trigger Article 50.
With a month to go before the deadline, the UK Government has secured the approval of the House of Commons to trigger Article 50 and is now negotiating with the Lords. In Brussels, preparations are underway for the Summit on the future of the EU to coincide with the 60 anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. Theresa May has declined her invitation, and the divorce negotiations – yet to be formally started – have already begun to sour over money, among other contentious issues, and are looking set for a very rocky start.
Latest twist in the plot
UK perspective
In what was not so much a twist, but more a case of a story coming full circle – Tony Blair and Peter Mandelson decided it was time to issue a rallying cry for Remainers to resist ‘Brexit at any cost’. The former Prime Minister encouraged by Lord Mandelson, told reporters: “This is not the time for retreat, indifference or despair; but the time to rise up in defence of what we believe.” Utter confusion followed about the choice in timing (more than six months after the electorate went to the polls) and of the messenger (a man whose favourability rating is -60, according to YouGov), but the cost of Brexit has been thrown into stark relief in recent days after Jean Claude Juncker said Britain would face a ‘hefty bill’ to leave as the country pays off its outstanding obligations. The Government has chosen not to publically respond, yet, but the argument from Juncker that the bill would have to be agreed before negotiations begin on a relationship will have put up the hackles of Number 10.
EU perspective
In a technical meeting on 6 February Commission Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier and the EU 27 identified the EU budget and equal treatment for UK and EU citizens as key priorities. Barnier also re-afffirmed that the sequence of agreeing the withdrawal agreement before discussing any new relationship is crucial, and echoed Commission President Juncker’s scepticism about the possibility of agreeing on both in the desired time-frame. European Parliament reports have laid bare the scale of the undertaking, which includes brokering agreement on more than 20,000 laws.
Debate is heating up in particular around the cost of Brexit, and whether EU assets (and liabilities) should be factored into the bill delivered to London upon Brexit. This is expected to amount to €60-70 billion. Leading voices in the Council – read France and Germany – disagree with the Commission’s inclusion of EU assets (worth €154 billion and formally not divided in shares) in budgetary calculations. They are also keen to ensure the UK abides by its full budgetary commitments which run through 2019, a position which will likely unite both net contributors and beneficiaries of the EU budget.
The best of times and the worst of times
UK perspective
The UK Government also got a boon from Brussels, as the European Commission revised upwards its 2017 growth forecasts for the UK (following on from a more optimistic forecast from the Bank of England). The Commission expects growth to slow in 2018.
Paul Nuttall, UKIP’s leader and an architect of the Brexit campaign, has, meanwhile, felt the full weight of media scrutiny on him in his preparations for the by-election in Stoke on Thursday. Mr Nuttall has been forced to offer an apology after a blog on his website incorrectly said he had lost personal friends in the Hillsborough disaster. This latest controversy, alongside questions over the duration of his residency in Stoke, could put a significant dent in his ambition to take his seat as the second UKIP MP, and for the Party’s longer term future post-Brexit.
EU perspective
Some EU voices welcomed Theresa May’s White Paper published on 2 February, although it added little of substance to the vision laid out in her 17 January speech (considered unrealistic and not very constructive by most EU commentators). The EU position has, however, not changed: non-members must be in a less advantageous position than members. May’s flirtations with Trump amidst the US President’s crackdown on migration – an issue both at the heart of Brexit discussions and highly sensitive especially ahead of elections in the Netherlands and France – drove a further rift between the parties.
Allegiances and betrayals
UK perspective
An unlikely allegiance of sorts was formed by the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, after he called on his MPs to back the EU Bill. Corbyn issued a three-line whip on the Vote, but 52 out of his 229 colleagues voted against the Bill. Despite their defiance, the Bill passed with a majority of 372.
EU perspective
Aspirant leaders have involved Brexit in national election strategies. The French pro-EU candidate Macron vowed a tough negotiation stance, while the powerful German Finance Minister dismissed calls to reverse Brexit as tardy attempts proving that Britain is only starting to realise what leaving means.
Conversely, amidst EU fears that the UK could seduce some Eastern European states to soften their negotiating stance (with the sweetener of diverted development aid), an Italian Prime Minister with a changing expiry date called for conciliatory talks.
What does the next chapter have in store?
UK perspective
Theresa May made it abundantly clear to the House of Lords that any frustration of the ‘will of the people’ during the passage of the EU (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill would have consequences for the future of the unelected second chamber when she sat in on the opening debate this week. Her official spokesman said this was ‘in recognition of the importance of this bill as it proceeds through the Lords’ but her unusual appearance on the red benches was seen by many as an intimidation tactic.
The debate in the House of Lords, where the Government does not have a majority, drew record attendance and took place over two days. A significant proportion of the debate was taken up by a discussion on the democratic process and the role of Parliament. In accordance with the convention of permitting government legislation to pass second reading unheeded, the Bill went through unopposed. Line by line examination of the Bill is scheduled to start in committee on 27 February and finish on 1 March. No amendments could mean approval by the Lords on 7 March and Royal Assent quickly thereafter. Amendments will result in the Bill ping ponging between the Commons and the Lords until agreement is reached. Labour’s leader in the Lords has said Opposition peers will not frustrate the process to the point of interfering with the Prime Minister’s intention to trigger Article 50 by the end of March, but the Leader of the Liberal Democrats continues to insist that ‘there is a world of difference between seeking to block the Bill and seeking to amend it.
EU perspective
EU27 leaders will gather on 9 March in Rome to celebrate the 60 anniversary of the founding treaty of the EU and the future of the Union. Although invited, Theresa May has declined to attend, in what is seen in Brussels as another sign of worsening relations.
Meanwhile, security remains a common thread in EU-UK ties, with rumours of David Cameron as the possible next NATO Secretary General (although he would likely find few ardent supporters among EU leaders); financial services remain paramount, with Bruegel arguing for an overhaul of the EU financial system.
The European Court of Justice remains the elephant in the room, with its President saying it may judge and modify any Brexit agreement, and European Parliament lead negotiator, Guy Verhofstadt stating that any transitional deal would submit the UK to the European Court of Justice’s jurisdiction.
….and the most memorable quote?
UK perspective
The Tories think the UK is like "Clark Kent going into [a] Brexit phone booth and emerging as superman." Lord Newby, Leader of the Liberal Democrats in the House of Lords
EU perspective
“In contrast to the amateurishness of the British, the EU side looks highly professional. The imminent guidelines of the European Council must work hard to install some semblance of dignity into the business of Brexit.” Andrew Duff concluding his European Policy Centre policy paper on triggering Article 50
If you would like to keep your finger on the pulse of developments and scenario plan for Brexit, the Newington / Cambre jBrexit Taskforce'offers the full range of government relations, public affairs and corporate communications services to guide and support businesses through the changes to come. Please get in touch with Naomi Harris for further information.
