Newington's Mark Glover rounds up an eventful year in politics and what it means for businesses entering 2017.
Trump, Brexit, Corbyn and Italy’s Five Star Movement were all symbols in a year when the voting public finally decided that they had had enough. Too many felt left behind by a combination of world markets distant from their day-to-day experiences, technological advances begetting destabilising employment practices and the wealth gap between rich and poor (and in the UK, north and south) growing ever more obvious.
As business leaders look to 2017 they will have to contend with a fast-changing political environment, with regulation and legislation under the microscope like never before. Operating environments will continually shift for even the major companies, which whilst providing opportunity for some, will engender the uncertainty that is so often destabilising for investment.
In Europe, business may struggle to understand the full implications of Brexit. Whilst Theresa May’s government is identifying its position and ‘red lines’, it will be vital for business to consider wielding influence over other European politicians, especially when domestic elections mean they may have one eye on their domestic agenda, when negotiating on Brexit. The biggest of these domestic elections may well be in France in April, when Marine Le Pen (and her Eurosceptic agenda) is in with a real chance of capturing the French presidency, destabilising the whole EU project. These dangers to European stability will not relent, with elections also in the Netherlands and Germany, and across a lot of Eastern Europe, facing populist challenges of their own. Business needs to keep a close eye on these developments and understand their impact on market access and operating costs.
Uncertainty is likely to remain in Scotland too, with Nicola Sturgeon suggesting she has not given up on her independence agenda and using the European situation to leverage support to her cause and the threat of a second referendum inevitability slowing the levels of investment in the country. Wales seems a haven of stability, but Labour’s grip on power has been weakened and populist forces are wielding more influence.
Mayoral elections in Liverpool, Manchester and Birmingham will shape a devolved domestic agenda, much trailed by former Chancellor George Osborne, but only now being delivered. Which powers and how much authority is devolved will be key policy pointers in the UK. These three mayoral battles will provide a real voice to opposition to Westminster, with both Liverpool and Manchester looking fairly safe for the Labour candidates, Steve Rotheram and Andy Burnham. The West Midland mayoral race is much closer between Labour’s Sion Simon and Conservative candidate, John Lewis businessman, Andy Street. Moving power from London to these northern citadels may change the nature of politics in Britain for many years, heralding a move to a more federalist UK approach.
Business leaders will need to understand the implications of these changes and, more than ever, to know where decisions are being made and who is making them. Newington can help ensure you are making informed decisions in your best interests. For more information, please contact Naomi Harris, Managing Director, Public Affairs.
