Newington's Phil Briscoe - who voted Leave in last year's EU referendum - outlines developments since the UK voted for Brexit.
Twelve months ago today, the British electorate shocked the pundits by voting to leave the European Union. Politicians opened the door of possibilities and the voters pushed it wide open.
Since then, it has been a year of political turmoil that has added new words to our vocabulary with Remoaners and Regrexit setting the scene for a national discussion on Hard-Brexit or Soft-Brexit.
Disagreement over the future of the UK-EU relationship began immediately with individual views on the referendum result. Was the vote to leave a whopping majority of 1.3million people, or it was a wafer-thin 3.8% margin? That will depend on which way you voted!
The twelve months since have been filled with domestic political intrigue and drama, as we lost one Prime Minister and found a new one, only to then almost lose a second one at the recent election. An election that also saw UKIP collapse, the Conservative majority disappear and the SNP independence express derailed….by the Conservatives!
But what has actually happened to move Brexit towards becoming a reality?
In short, very little has happened to date, and the detail will follow in the months ahead.
However, what has happened in the last year is a shift in expectations – the legal challenges to stop Brexit have fallen by the wayside, the marches and days of action have fizzled out, and in the recent General Election, the only major Party standing on a truly Remain ticket – the Liberal Democrats – saw their vote share fall still further.
While the polls continue to show opinion largely divided across the country (and some polls show that Brexit would win again while others show that Remain would win today), the interesting underlying trend is a growth in support for the outcome of the referendum. Some polls show that two-thirds of UK voters would either support Brexit or would support the need to implement Brexit based on the referendum result.
This shift in attitudes reflects a negotiating stance which is likely to be much more pragmatic than political rhetoric would suggest. Of the Government’s 12 negotiating objectives, only three of them mention leaving the EU in any sense – they are controlling immigration, taking control of laws and delivering a smooth orderly exit. Other objectives focus more on securing trade and security cooperation with our European neighbours.
With the Prime Minister now focusing on protecting the rights of EU citizens it is a reminder that taking back control of immigration does not necessarily mean ending immigration, nor does trade with the rest of the world herald an end to trade with the remaining EU members.
For companies and organisations looking to contribute to the eventual shape of Brexit, the months ahead provide a unique opportunity to engage with Government and put forward thoughts and suggestions. But starting from where we are now, it is not a time to challenge the notion of Brexit but to help shape the landscape of change and ensure your messages are heard in the best light.
One urban definition that appeared in the wake of the referendum was Brexititis, defined as the inability of an individual to accept any views on the issue that are different to their own (either Leave or Remain). As negotiations continue and intensify, the country needs to focus on moving past this condition and working together to deliver solutions – and if the polling is anything to go by, there are signs that this is already happening.
For advice on how to engage around Brexit issues please contact Naomi Harris on [email protected].
