Newington's Camilla Eason looks at the impact of Brexit on local elections in the Midlands

A near-decade in power, sustained cuts to local Government grants and numerous failed attempts at reaching a Parliamentary consensus on Brexit have put the Conservatives on track to face considerable losses at next month’s local elections.

Whilst the scale of defeat is difficult to predict, it’s likely to be nationwide and most strongly felt in Remain-supporting areas where opposition parties can capitalize on appetite for a second referendum and voter discontent with a Conservative Party that’s at times appeared more concerned with internal party politics than pursuing a practical solution to the current Brexit impasse.

Amidst a bleak set of forecasted results, the Conservatives will be looking to the Midlands for some positive news.

Traditionally the party has performed well in the region with candidates proving popular amongst middle class constituents in both towns and across its smaller, rural villages. In contrast, Labour’s support is concentrated to less affluent areas in the Black Country and cities like Birmingham, Coventry and Leicester, with the party struggling to defend its presence elsewhere in the area under leader Jeremy Corbyn.

In 2015 Labour lost Stoke-on-Trent City Council, a former stronghold, to no overall control, followed by North Warwickshire to the Conservatives. The Conservatives saw an increase in seats against the party here in 2017, with Labour coming close to losing the Parliamentary seat of Stoke-on-Trent Central to UKIP leader Paul Nuttal only a few months before. 

The area is also home to a large contingent of Leave supporters, who are – incidentally, growing increasingly frustrated with Government’s handling of Brexit.

Brexit sentiment is particularly robust in traditional Labour strongholds, with the aforementioned Stoke-on-Trent, Wolverhampton and Nuneaton showing huge majorities for Leave in 2016 – some as high as 69%.

Whilst the Conservatives have used Brexit as an effective campaigning tool to steal votes from Labour in the past, the Government’s treatment of the process now threatens to inhibit electoral success rather than enable it.

It’s notable that both Conservatives and Labour have tried to campaign on a platform of local issues rather than turning the conversation onto national politics. Despite this, Brexit still dominates the agenda.

It’s difficult to underestimate the extent to which disenfranchised Leave voters feel shut out from Westminster, and increasingly irritated with a two-party system in which both sides appear to be set on frustrating the “will of the people”. Further delays to the UK’s leaving date only increases the likelihood that these elections will provide Brexit-supporting Conservative voters an opportunity to deliver a punishment beating to the Government.

With no other party to turn to bar UKIP, those on the ground suggest Conservative voters in the Midlands will just stay at home. With 540 seats to defend, low turnout could be a huge factor in what is shaping up to be a bad night for the Tories.

As Tory peer and pollster Robert Hayward claimed recently, these elections offer a critical opportunity to see how the party’s handling of Brexit is impacting voting intention in “Toryland”. With European elections only three weeks after, a disappointing result could put both the party and Theresa May, in an even more vulnerable position.