Newington looks at Colchester Council , which is on a knife-edge ahead of May's elections
It's all to play for ahead of the council elections in Colchester on 2nd May 2019. Control of the council hangs in the balance, with a range of outcomes possible following the upcoming vote.
The stalled Local Plan process and controversial recent plans for development in the town centre provide a significant backdrop to the elections in one of the fastest growing towns in the UK.
Current composition
Current council control
Despite the Conservatives being the largest group on the council by some margin, they are one councillor short of an overall majority. As a consequence the council is run by a coalition of Liberal Democrats, Labour and Independents who have joined forces to keep the Conservatives out of control. This coalition has been in place since 2008. But it is under significant threat this year as the Conservatives have been making ground in elections in recent years meaning that just one gain this year gives them overall control.
Potential outcomes of the election in May
The Conservatives winning control of Colchester Borough Council for the first time in over a decade is a very credible outcome of the elections in May. But what makes these elections so interesting is the range of potential outcomes. There could be virtually no change, which would no doubt see the existing coalition continue. However, there is another credible scenario that would see Labour winning a seat from the Liberal Democrats and becoming the second largest party on the council. If the Conservatives fail to make the gain they need, this would likely result in the coalition coming back together but with Labour as the senior partner and therefore a Labour leader of the council.
Finally, with all three current leaders of the main political groups up for election this year (the Liberal Democrat Council Leader, Cllr Mark Cory and Conservative Group Leader, Cllr Darius Laws in marginal wards) there is the prospect of new leadership across the council.
Political positions on housing and planning
The development backdrop to the elections is the stalled Local Plan process as the planning inspector blocked adoption of the plan last year declaring elements, particularly around infrastructure attached to the North Essex Garden Communities (jointly proposed with Tendring and Braintree District Councils), unsound. Additionally, controversial and widely opposed plans to develop a key town centre location at Painters' Yard, have drawn greater scrutiny on developers and their relationship with the council.
So where do the main parties in Colchester stand?
Conservatives
Liberal Democrats
Labour
Wards to watch
Castle
A hyper-marginal ward, where the current leader of the Conservative Group, Cllr Darius Laws is up for election. The Conservatives won this one by just 11 votes in 2018 ahead of the Green Party. Almost 70% of voters voted for the Greens, Labour and Liberal Democrats in 2018, so if left-of-centre voters unite behind a single party this time, the Conservatives could be easily defeated. The Conservatives may just edge it if the vote splits again.
New Town and Christ Church
Won comfortably by the Liberal Democrats in all-out elections on new ward boundaries in 2016, but a big swing to Labour saw them win well in 2018. The scale of their win last year probably makes Labour favourites to take another seat from the Liberal Democrats this year, although the sitting councillor is well established. A win for Labour here could see them overtake the Liberal Democrats as the second biggest party on the council.
Shrub End
Traditionally a Conservative vs Liberal Democrat contest, a by election in 2017 saw the Conservatives win narrowly over Labour with the Liberal Democrats not far behind in third. A very similar result in 2018 suggests this will again be a three-way contest, with the Conservatives marginal favourites.
St Anne's and St John's
The Conservatives spectacularly won a seat from the Liberal Democrats here in 2018, unseating previous Leader of the Council, Paul Smith in the process. Prior to that it had been a relatively safe Liberal Democrat ward. The Liberal Democrats, perhaps taken by surprise last year, may pile more resources in to defend their seat that is up this time. This may be enough to hold on.
Stanway
Another Liberal Democrat vs Conservative marginal ward. The Liberal Democrats won two seats to the Conservatives one in all-out elections in 2016, but the Conservatives weren't far behind. The Conservatives won by 200 votes in 2018 making them potentially the slight favourites this time.
Wivenhoe
In 2016 this ward split two seats to Labour and one the Liberal Democrats, with the top three candidates split by just 17 votes. But in 2018 the Liberal Democrats gained one of the Labour seats by almost 400 votes. Council Leader Cllr Mark Cory is up for re-election this year and is favourite to hold on to his seat.
Prediction for 2019
On the basis of the predictions above, the Conservatives would gain the one seat they need to take control of the council, and Labour would become the largest party overtaking the Liberal Democrats. But the margins are so fine, that one or two wards electing even marginally in a different way could see an entirely different outcome for the control of the council.This is definitely one to look out for on election night!
