Jack Worlidge summarises the possible next steps for the Conservative Party.
Overview
Sir Graham Brady MP – Chair of the 1922 Committee – announced this morning (12 December) that over 15% of Conservative MPs had written to him to express that they have no confidence in the Prime Minister, Theresa May, as Leader of the Conservative Party.
As a result, the 1922 Committee is organising a secret ballot of all Conservative MPs, to take place between 18:00 and 20:00 this evening in Committee Room 14 in the House of Commons.
If a simple majority of those MPs who turn up to vote oppose the Prime Minister, a leadership election will follow, in which Theresa May will not be able to take part. She will, however, remain Leader and Prime Minister until a successor is appointed. If a simple majority support the Prime Minister, she will remain Leader and Prime Minister, and cannot be challenged again for one year.
The threshold being reached follows the Government’s decision on Monday this week to delay the “meaningful vote” on the Withdrawal Agreement it has reached with the EU. It had become clear that the Government would lose the vote, amid opposition from all opposition parties in the Commons and many Conservative MPs.
Confidence vote
Taking into account those who are currently suspended from the party, a total of 315 Conservative MPs are eligible to vote. If all Conservative MPs turn out to vote, this means that 158 MPs must support the Prime Minister if she is to remain in position; or oppose the Prime Minister if a leadership election is to commence. It is a secret ballot – meaning that public declarations of support or opposition cannot be fully relied upon. As of 10.30am, every member of the Cabinet has publicly declared their support for Theresa May.
The Prime Minister is due to address the 1922 Committee at 5pm, just before the ballot opens.
Outcomes and consequences
Theresa May wins
At present, it appears most likely that the Prime Minister will be successful in the vote. While the European Research Group (ERG) of Conservative MPs has for several weeks been urging MPs to submit their letters of no confidence, the threshold has only just been reached – meaning it is unlikely that there are 158 MPs willing to vote to topple the Prime Minister. That said, the decision to delay the “meaningful vote” has hardened attitudes, with pro-Leave and pro-Remain Conservative MPs alike expressing dismay at the Government’s approach.
This morning, all of the Cabinet have expressed their support for May. Speaking in Downing Street, the Prime Minister herself urged Conservative MPs to focus on delivering Brexit, while emphasising her readiness to continue in post and contest the vote.
If the Prime Minister is successful, she will remain in post, and cannot be challenged again for one year. She would, therefore, continue discussions with EU counterparts on the possibility of tweaking the Brexit deal. She would likely present a cosmetically revised deal to the Commons in the coming weeks.
At present, it seems likely that even a revised deal would be unlikely to win round her critics – and MPs would vote against the deal. In that case, the Labour Party would almost certainly table a formal motion of no confidence in the Government, if it has not already. The DUP have previously publicly declared their support for the Conservatives in any vote of no confidence, though this was before the announcement of the ballot this afternoon. While the Government would be likely to survive such a vote, a general election could follow if they did not.
If the Government’s deal is approved, the UK will leave the UK on 29 March 2019, and will be in a status-quo transitional state until the end of December 2020. The Government’s intention would be to secure a Free Trade Agreement during that time, which would form the permanent relationship between the UK and the EU going forward.
It is important to note that the Prime Minister may choose to stand down even if she wins by a narrow margin. Indeed, though the rules have changed since, Margaret Thatcher chose to resign as Prime Minister despite not losing the leadership contest in 1990. If the Prime Minister chose to stand down, the process below would then follow.
Theresa May loses - a new leadership election
If 158 or more MPs oppose the Prime Minister this evening, a leadership election will commence. The process would be as follows:
The timings of a possible leadership election are uncertain, and many Conservative MPs have given different accounts of how quickly a contest could be organised. The Executive of the 1922 Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party Board, would determine the timeline. A meeting of the Conservative Party Board is scheduled for tomorrow.
Pressing deadlines make this particularly important:
Once the next leader is confirmed, Theresa May will go to the Palace to inform the Queen that she will resign, and recommend the new Leader of the Conservative Party be appointed Prime Minister. The Queen will then summon the new Leader, and they will be formally invited to form a Government.
Preparatory conversations between the Civil Service and Buckingham Palace will likely have already begun. A visit to the Palace by the new Leader would likely take place hours after the winner of the contest is announced, but timings also depend on the Queen’s location and schedule.
The likely next steps in the Brexit process would depend on the winner of the leadership contest.
