Dudley: All to play for in this West Midlands bell-weather

Newington takes a look at one of the most knife-edge councils in the country, the Metropolitan Borough of Dudley in the West Midlands, as part of our 2019 local elections coverage.

At present, Labour and the Conservatives are separated by the narrowest of margins. The Labour run council has 36 Labour councillors to the 35 Conservatives, with an independent taking up the final seat. With a third of councillors up for election this year, the contest is well poised with both parties potentially believing they can secure majority control.

Since its formation in 1974, Dudley Council has been a key battleground between Labour and the Conservatives. Following an eight year period of Conservative control from 2004 to 2012, Labour assumed control of the authority in 2012. However, they lost their majority in 2016, forcing them to form a minority administration – supported by UKIP. In the following year, the Conservatives, also supported by UKIP, formed their own minority administration. In the aftermath of a collapse in the UKIP vote in 2018 Labour and the Conservatives both gained 35 seats respectively on the council. Labour has since gained 36 seats on the Council, following the defection of a former Conservative councillor who had been standing as an independent.

Given the ongoing issues the Conservatives are facing nationally with Brexit, the party will be greatly concerned that this could affect their performance in the local election. Labour should be looking to take advantage of this in Dudley, with the hopes of securing a large majority of the council. But in last year’s election, the Tories secured six seats and took a larger share of the UKIP vote, which suggests they may perform better than expected in May. 

Political control of Dudley Council stands on a knife edge and could go either way. This is all the more interesting as in reality there are only a small number of seats that may realistically change hands due to large Labour or Conservative majorities in most seats that are up this year. All hinges on the outcome of those wards.

Issues

Regeneration

Both Labour and the Conservatives will want to be seen be behind and driving key regeneration projects like the £82 million redevelopment of Cavendish House and plans to rejuvenate the town centre. Cavendish House was a former shopping centre that had been left derelict since 2014. The site had been earmarked for regeneration for a number of years, and was listed as a key priority for both Labour and the Conservatives. 

This could be a key election issue with Labour wanting to show progress has been achieved with them in charge while the Conservatives will no doubt say they haven’t achieved enough.

Travellers

A significant political issue in the borough recently has been how to deal with local concerns about travellers establishing unauthorised camps in open spaces.

When in control of the council, the Conservatives approved plans for a temporary transit site in Coseley, which would enable police officers to remove unauthorised travellers immediately. These plans were cancelled by the current Labour administration.

In the build up to the local elections, the Conservatives have pledged to reintroduce the proposals for the transit site and have attacked Labour’s lack of action on the traveller issue.

No doubt this issue will play out at the elections, with the Conservatives hoping to profit at the ballot box at Labour’s expense.

UKIP

The one thing that could yet throw a spanner in the works is the inclusion of UKIP candidates on the ballot paper in 14 wards. While UKIP has declined rapidly in the borough, losing their remaining six seats last year, voters’ angry at the Conservatives’ failure to deliver Brexit could be vented through support for UKIP this year, particularly as 67.6 percent of residents in the borough voted to leave the European Union . Labour may also suffer if voters consider that they have obstructed Brexit.

If UKIP manage to pick up even just a handful of seats this will probably prevent either main party from securing a majority.

Wards to watch

Norton

Following former Conservative councillor Heather Rogers’ defection to Labour in September 2018, the party occupies two of the three seats in the ward.  She is seeking re-election this year and may face a tough challenge to retain her seat as a Labour candidate. Whilst Labour have support in the area, the Conservatives won here by more than 1,400 votes in 2018, suggesting the Conservatives will win the seat back in May. Cllr Rogers remains a popular figure locally however and so may do better than last year’s result may suggest.  

Belle Vale

Whilst Belle Vale is currently represented by three Conservative councillors, Labour’s vote in the ward has been on the up in recent years. Last year Conservative Cllr Jake Cooper was elected by just 135 votes. The Conservative candidate Cllr Simon Philipps will be confident of retaining his seat in May, but will be conscious that he faces a potent challenge from Labour who could win if the Conservative vote is hit by their troubles over Brexit.

Conclusion

The margins in Dudley are very fine. The council sits on a knife-edge and if either Labour or the Conservatives are to secure a majority they will likely need to win both Norton and Belle Vale wards. If these wards split between the two parties there will likely be no change. This makes Labour the favourites to continue on control as no change would likely mean a continuation of the current administration. But UKIP may yet have something to say. If they were to win just one or two wards that could make the viability for a majority for either party unviable.