Greater Manchester: What next for the Spatial Framework after May’s elections?

Newington takes a look at the local elections in Greater Manchester on 2 May and what impact the outcomes could have on the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework.

The elections in May will mark the first anniversary of all ten of Greater Manchester’s councils being under Labour leadership - if not necessarily majority control - for the first time. But this could be short-lived with Labour control under threat in some councils this year, bringing potential new uncertainty for the region’s development framework.

In the five years since the initial Greater Manchester Devolution Deal was signed several things have changed. Only one of the ten Council Leaders sat round the table then - Manchester’s Sir Richard Leese - is still there now. Stockport’s Lib Dem Leader and Trafford’s Conservative Leader have been replaced by Labour ones, while the other seven councils which were Labour then all have new Leaders, or in Salford’s case a directly elected Mayor.

At the head of the table sits Mayor Andy Burnham, who made the protection of the Green Belt a key part of his election campaign. When the development of the Spatial Framework began in 2016, it wasn’t anticipated how much of a political issue this would become. The 2017 General Election, where MPs and Parliamentary Candidates weighed in, wasn’t anticipated. The Mayor made more specific and wide-ranging demands for removing Green Belt sites from the Draft Framework than was expected. And new Council Leaders have had their own views on what should be built and where. More change on the back of the elections this year is unlikely to help drive things forward.

While there is always the potential for upsets in individual wards, Bury, Rochdale, Salford, Manchester, Oldham, Tameside and Wigan won’t be changing hands from Labour this time round.

The remaining three Greater Manchester councils are where the key battles will unfold.

Trafford Council

Labour will be looking to make sufficient gains in Trafford to give it majority control, having secured minority control with the support of the Borough’s two Lib Dems in 2018. The loss by the Conservatives of one of their flagship councils was a major shock.

The previous leadership took a pro-development line and supported some controversial developments just as the preservation of the Green Belt became a major issue. This was probably reflected in the election results.

Since 2018, the Trafford Planning Committee has become more volatile - rejecting developments supported by planning officers, which probably wouldn’t have been contentious before.

The chances of the Conservatives winning back control this year are not high. The most likely outcome seems Labour winning a small majority, which could see a continuation of the scepticism towards development.

Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council

Change is inevitable in Stockport. Labour’s Alex Ganotis is stepping down both as Leader of his party’s minority administration and from the council. Previously a Liberal Democrat stronghold, of the 63 seats, Labour currently holds 25, the Lib Dems 21, the Conservatives 12, and the Heald Green Ratepayers 3, as well as 2 Independent councillors. Labour will be looking to take seats in Manor, Offerton and Cheadle Hulme North wards, while the Conservatives and Lib Dems will compete hard in Hazel Grove, Stepping Hill and Marple.

A major shift is unlikely, but politics in Stockport is often unusual, with a long history of councillors defecting to different parties. Given the political balance, there needs to be at least some co-operation between two of the major groups to get major issues through. Up to now, the Labour and Conservative Groups have generally managed to find an accommodation when they need to, partly as they both compete against the Lib Dems for council seats but not generally against each other.

Meanwhile the Conservatives and Lib Dems are in fierce competition for the Hazel Grove and Cheadle Parliamentary seats, currently both in Conservative hands. Green Belt and development issues are key in these seats. It will be interesting to see how well this co-operation will hold beyond May. The likelihood is that Labour will remain the largest group, gaining at least one seat, and in a strong position to continue as a minority administration.

Bolton Council

Many eyes will be on Bolton. Labour currently holds 30 out of 60 seats, having technically lost its slimmest possible majority of 1 seat in November 2018 when a Labour Cabinet Member resigned from the party citing ‘personal reasons’.

Planning and development issues have caused significant controversy in recent years, particularly housing development on the Green Belt to the north and west of the Borough. At recent elections, residents appear to have held the Labour administration responsible, leading to a loss of seats to the Conservatives, who will be looking to win additional council seats in the area in May.

In the south of the borough Labour will face a strong challenge from the Farnworth and Kearsley First Party, established in 2017, which now holds three seats on the council. This year, they will be looking to gain further seats from Labour. The new party has argued that their area has been left behind by local regeneration schemes and lost a number of local facilities. Similar Independent groups have now been established in Horwich and Blackrod and in Westhoughton. They will be running candidates against sitting councillors, with opposition to development likely to be a key issue. In the context of specific local issues, well as anger at both main parties over the failure of the political system on Brexit, these new local parties may be in a strong position to soak up the votes of disillusioned voters.

There has also been considerable controversy over a decision by Bolton Council to provide a grant of £300,000 to a local firm of solicitors which was subsequently closed down by regulators. Heavy criticism led to the resignation of long-serving Council Leader Cliff Morris.

Should Bolton Labour lose seats in May, it seems likely that it will remain the largest group. The question would then be whether it would be able to form a coalition with one or more of the smaller or Independent groups, continue as a minority administration, or whether the Conservatives as the largest opposition group could make its own deal.

Conclusion

If new deals need to be done between parties after May in Trafford, Stockport or Bolton, the future of the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework, limits on Green Belt development, moves towards “brownfield first” policies and a greater focus on housing affordability are likely to figure very highly in any negotiations.

As the final version will need to be agreed by all ten councils and the Mayor, it may well be that further revisions to the Spatial Framework will be required, followed presumably by yet more public consultation. It’s also possible that the entire Spatial Framework could be put on hold if a single council decides to withdraw their support - Stockport’s Lib Dems lost a council vote on doing just this in 2017, while Trafford’s Conservatives recently raised the idea of developing a local plan outside the Spatial Framework if agreement can’t be reached.

While there may be some political changes after next month’s elections, greater clarity on what will happen next with the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework and future development still seems some way off.