Newington’s Sam McGowan looks at the state of play in Medway ahead of their all-out council elections this Thursday.

This Thursday, all-out elections are taking place within Medway, across all 22 wards in the unitary authority. The Conservatives are currently in firm control of the council, possessing 34 seats compared to Labour’s 15, four Independents and UKIP’s solitary seat. The 2015 election saw the Lib Dems lose all three of their seats, whilst the two Independent Councillors also lost out. Four of these seats went to UKIP and the Conservatives cemented their majority with an additional Councillor.  Although the Conservative’s majority looks to be safe in terms of historic and recent voting patterns, the current national landscape looks to feature heavily at the local elections, which could hurt their chances, and Labour have fielded a strong opposition for the elections. However,the smart money is on the Conservatives still managing to secure a majority at these elections.

Wards to watch

Princes Park Ward, historically a Conservative Ward with Labour finishing in close second. The current state of national politics could see Labour finally mount a successful campaign.

River Ward represents a historically unpredictable Ward with Conservatives currently in power. With Cllr Andrew Mackness standing down, who was a popular Councillor, and Labour having previously controlled the ward, it will likely be a key target for the concerted Labour party effort.

Strood North has been cited as a must win Ward for Labour if they are to mount a serious claim to significantly strengthen their position on the council. With the Ward previously being split, and now Conservative, Labour have focused their attention on the Ward with a popular candidate in Stephen Hubbard.

Watling Ward, which is currently held by the conservatives, however only Cllr Wendy Purdy is standing for re-election with the other councillors standing down, paving the way for new candidates. The Liberal Democrats are treating the ward as a priority, seeking to re-establish themselves on the Council, prior to 2015 they held the Ward and are hoping to reclaim control. Labour have also targeted the Ward a prospective gain from the Conservatives, aiding their objective of achieving a majority.

The national effect

Labour:

With regards to Labour voters in Medway, as with many working-class areas across the UK, many have become frustrated with Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour Party. Many historic Labour voters are finding themselves at odds with his leftward stances, viewing them as too distant from their own values. This, coupled with Corbyn’s difficulties to maintain party cohesion, has led to many feeling disassociated with the Labour party, which has filtered down to the local landscape. Given Labour's relatively pro-remain stance in comparison with the Conservatives and UKIP, the support for Leave in Medway in 2016 could make this a significant hurdle to overcome. 

Conservatives:

Many grassroots Conservatives have become frustrated with the current state of the Brexit negotiations. Indeed the final straw for many of them, already frustrated at Brexit not being enacted as quickly or aggressively as they would like, has been the involvement of Jeremy Corbyn and his senior Labour colleagues in current Brexit negotiations. There is an inclination locally amongst some Conservative activists to boycott the local elections because of this, whilst the impending European elections may see a groundswell of support for the new Brexit Party. Whilst the national landscape is likely to have a sizeable impact on the Medway local elections, given the area voted 64.1% to Leave, it is difficult to assess how this will play out, given that the Conservatives are currently in charge of Brexit, Labour would like it to be softer (or stopped altogether, depending on who you listen to), and UKIP have faced severe difficulties organisationally since the last elections here.

Local issues

Within Medway there is a unique political atmosphere. With a 64% leave vote, strong Labour enclaves, overarching Conservatism and a UKIP element to consider, the political landscape is volatile. There are five wards in Medway inside the top 10 per cent most deprived areas nationally, and six in the least deprived 10 per cent nationally, showing the high levels of economic diversity in the area. Much of the local politics is consumed by issues that are mirrored across the country, such as parking, rubbish collection, council tax and community facilities. Indeed, the overnight introduction of the guest parking ticket, which saw prices double in areas within the Controlled Parking Zone, has caused uproar within the community. Free rubbish collection being scrapped has led to high levels of fly tipping and disgruntled residents, who now have to pay for the collection of larger items. Labour are seeking to capitalise on mishaps from the Conservative Leadership locally by pushing hard on these issues.

The Conservatives has also come into criticism regarding the re-selection of Michael Franklin in Luton and Wayfield, who was deselected due to Islamophobic comments, and the selection of Brexiteer Rebecca Ryan in Rochester West, the highest Remain voting ward in Medway. With the party having a bad year in 2018, the 2019 elections looks set to cause more issues for the party. These issues have only been compounded by the suspension of the Conservative Candidate for Peninsula ward, former Tower Hamlets councillor Gloria Thienel, following the discovery of anti-Muslim tweets. Thienel's suspension has come so late in the day however, that she will still appear on the ballot as a Conservative Party candidate. 

Planning prospects

With regards to planning the current Conservative Council has been criticised over the current state of development. The acquisitions of sites such as the Medway Tunnel for one pound or the more recent purchase of the Pentagon Shopping Centre highlight the regeneration driven stratagem of the Conservatives. However Labour have criticised the purchase of the Medway Tunnel, highlighting that the entire roads budget is spent on its upkeep, thus meaning the quality of road surfaces around Medway has suffered. The council describes itself as “fast becoming known as the new economic powerhouse for the south-east.”

Currently the Conservatives are focusing on regeneration and development, taking a favourable stance on schemes whilst also acquiring sites. One of the biggest changes likely to be seen if a Labour Council were to be elected would be the provision of social and affordable housing, which would take priority in agreeing any housing schemes proposed by developers. Labour have also played on the Conservatives inability to hit housing targets after being set the target of delivering 1,300 new homes each year and achieving 553, 661 and 669 in the three years between 2015/16 and 2017/18. The Medway Bridge would likely be sold on to a private company and a charge for those travelling to Hoo Peninsula would be introduced.

UKIP’s chances

Since achieving unprecedented success at the 2015 election, with 4 councillors winning seats, Medway’s UKIP party has been on a downturn. In the weeks following the 2015 election it became apparent that the party had made crucial errors. The Leader of Medway’s UKIP party had decided to stand in Rochester East instead of standing for re-election in the Peninsula Ward, this decision led to him losing his councillor status as he was unable to get elected in Rochester East. Following the election UKIP lost all but one of their Councillors with Mark Joy joining the Conservatives, Catriona Brown-Reckless resigning and Cllr Mick Pendergast becoming Independent and forming his own group to fight the 2019 elections. This only leaves Cllr Roy Freshwater, who opposes development in the Hoo Peninsula. Although UKIP have put forward candidates for most Wards, there is a chance that they could be wiped out from the council altogether in the 2019 election, even though they will play on the frustrations of current Brexit negotiations. That being said the current stagnation of Brexit negotiations could see a resurgence in UKIP support. This could take away from some of the Conservative electorate, thus heightening the chances of Labour toppling the Conservative majority.  

Conclusion

Although there are seats that Labour could win from the Conservatives, gaining the 13 seats they need to in order to control the council seems fairly unlikely.  Whilst they could win some seats, like they did in the Rochester Ward by-election of 2018, where they swung the vote of a traditionally Conservative ward, this will be difficult to replicate across the whole council, and will probably prove to be too much of an ask for Labour. Notwithstanding the successes of the 2018 by-election of 2018, to target Conservative strongholds across the council as a whole looks to prove too much for the Labour. There is not much to be said for the chance of the Liberals or UKIP establishing a presence on Medway Council, however it is not as straightforward as to predict that they won’t feature at all given the current state of affairs.