Stuart Gardner looks at whether 2018 will offer more certainty for businesses.

Winston Churchill once famously said, “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” From a business perspective, democracy poses several challenges - from political uncertainty and instability - both of which we have experienced in droves recently, due to the Government governing without a majority whilst trying to extricate Britain from the European Union (EU) - to the politics of a problem all too frequently trumping the economics. Why take politically controversial decisions concerning airport expansion, planning reform, carbon reduction or the State Pension age when you will not be in office to reap the economic benefits?

Few mature democracies choose to live within their means. Politicians obsess over polls, the relentless electoral cycle and short-term economic desires. The level of debt the UK carries – fast approaching £2 trillion - highlights just how much the here and now overrides long term strategic planning. Theresa May’s lack of majority makes this even more difficult as her Government has to fight for its very survival vote by vote.

Two weeks on, the Budget is still largely perceived to have been a success and has not unravelled under scrutiny. At Newington we work across a range of clients in a variety of sectors. The overriding feedback we have received from business suggests much of the positive reception was due to it being quite “dull”. This description was meant in the nicest possible way. What business craves now more than anything is a degree of stability, something which has been in short supply over the past two years.

The unexpected EU referendum result and snap General Election saw businesses rip up their carefully drafted public affairs strategies in 2016 and 2017. Things were meant to be so different. Way back in 2015 the unexpected Tory majority, and consequent civil war within the Labour Party, was meant to be the start of a period of unchallenged Tory rule bringing about political stability following five years of unfamiliar Coalition Government.

Will 2018 be any more predictable than 2016 and 2017? Expect the unexpected may be the most sensible mantra to follow. 2018 will be a year stuffed full of Brexit, as we move on to trade talks in advance of the UK’s technical EU exit in March 2019. Largely due to the lack of a credible alternative leader emerging, the Conservative Party's current survival strategy appears to be to deploy the Prime Minister as a human shield to absorb the controversies of Brexit, whilst providing the next generation of Tory MPs with time to cut their teeth.

The timing and breadth of the next reshuffle should be telling in terms of the Prime Minister’s authority. An early, wide-ranging reshuffle in 2018, promoting those from the 2010 and 2015 intakes, would be a signal that perhaps she is strong enough to survive longer than almost anyone envisaged following the ill-fated election.

Many thought back in June that the Prime Minister would be replaced by the Autumn. Given the events of 2016 and 2017, might the smart money now be on her actually hanging on, and seeing Britain through its exit from the EU? Watch this space.