The Newington North team write about their experiences on the North West campaign doorstep
If 2015 was the year of Labour’s '5 Million Conversations' then 2017 must surely be the year of Labour’s '5 Million Consolations', as veteran party activists across the UK struggle to explain their party’s position on the economy, 'Brexit' and spending plans more generally. As noted in previous Newington articles, while mayoral elections give individual candidates an opportunity to distance themselves from their respective parties with independent manifestos and communications, the general election is a very different story. Undoubtedly sitting Labour Members of Parliament across the country will be attempting to widen the metaphorical chasm between their own experience, leadership and ambitions for their constituencies from those of the national party. Though Labour’s membership has swelled to over half a million members in the previous two years, its activist base remains markedly similar – politically and organisationally - to how it stood in 2015, if a little more frustrated.
In the North West at least, activists of all party persuasions have witnessed a significantly more aggressive Conservative vote on the doorstep. Gone are the days of the shy Tory in North West Labour strongholds; recurring themes on the doorstep show that “strong and stable leadership” is resonating well with voters, coupled with concern over the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn. Of the four million UKIP votes cast nationally, the majority are expected to regress into the Conservative vote base given the hard-line Brexit positioning of the Tories and the disintegration of UKIP party structures and policy practicality more broadly. Hotly contested North West marginal seats with majorities under 2500 votes such as Chester, Bury North, Wirral West, Bolton West, Weaver Vale, Barrow and Furness, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Warrington South and Copeland are direct Labour/Conservative battles with significant UKIP voting blocs and one would predict that the “Strong and Stable Leadership” message would likely secure these blocs and indeed these seats for the coming parliament.
Though predictions for Labour in the North West remain bleak, doorstep reactions to the general election do vary area by area and do take local considerations into account, the decidedly stronger Labour ground operation will seek to utilise these and crucially turn out the traditionally lethargic Labour vote. Similarly, the concrete core of Labour’s vote is reportedly holding firm in the party’s heartlands of the Liverpool City Region and Greater Manchester. Though with the last general election still in the not too distant memory of the electorate, coupled with several high profile regional by-elections, the Brexit referendum and regional mayoral elections, turnout will be critical.
After several years of doorstep activists being told their parties are “all the same” and that the public “never get a say” we may be looking at a North West region with political representation shakily built on frustration and sheer voter fatigue after June 8th.
