The news overnight is that Labour’s Lisa Forbes has narrowly won the parliamentary by-election in Peterborough that took place yesterday. The by-election was set in the context of former Labour MP Fiona Onasanya’s successful recall petition following a conviction for perverting the course of justice over a speeding offence.

Newington take a look at the result and what it means for politics going forward.

The result

• Labour- 10,484
• Brexit Party- 9,801
• Conservatives- 7,243
• Liberal Democrats- 4,159
• Green- 1,035
• UKIP- 400
• Others- 663

What does it mean?

Labour

The result will come as a surprise and a relief for Labour. Despite it being a Labour-held seat that conventionally they should be winning comfortably as the main opposition in a mid-term by-election, their strategists were not optimistic of a positive outcome. This was because of poor showings in the recent local and European elections, difficulties over where the party was perceived (or not) to stand on Brexit and accusations of anti-Semitism relating to their candidate Lisa Forbes that emerged late in the campaign.

Critics of Jeremy Corbyn were inevitably lining up to lay the blame at him for defeat and the loss of another Labour-held seat at a by-election (following Copeland in 2017). The win in Peterborough will put at least a temporary break on that and come as a big boost to the Labour Leader, given that his party has won in an area that voted 60% Leave and with a campaign that focused on cuts to policing, schools and public services rather than Brexit. Corbyn’s supporters will say that campaigning on issues other than Brexit is a strategy that can work, even though it failed catastrophically for Labour at the European elections.

Brexit Party

Although they came from nothing a few weeks ago to a close second in a parliamentary by-election, the result in Peterborough will be a huge disappointment for Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party (though he will spin it as a success). The narrative for weeks, particularly following the party’s European election win, had been set such that the pundits had all but declared their candidate as the winner and written off both Labour and the Conservatives.

When it came to it, the Brexit Party may have been beaten by Labour’s superior ground game and a higher than average turnout (48%) for a parliamentary by-election, perhaps driven by many of Peterborough’s higher than average ethnic minority population turning out to back Labour and stop Farage.

Farage was hoping this would be another major breakthrough for his new party. That they failed is a set-back. Whether the Brexit Party can continue to build momentum will depend on where the Conservative Party goes from here- who they choose as their next leader and Prime Minister, whether they are able to actually deliver Brexit, what the final settlement looks like and what voters make of it.

Conservatives

There will be lots of Conservatives shrugging their shoulders this morning, saying ‘so what?’ The party has just come through the worst national election result in their history in the European elections where they won less than 10% of the vote.

Ok, the result was bad, but no one was expecting much from the Conservatives in this election in Peterborough. In that context they will be pleased to have polled as many votes as they did.

What will be the consequences for them? Well not much really. Theresa May leaves Downing Street today anyway and the contest for a new leader is already underway. But the result may come as a disappointment for those on the right of the party hoping for a ‘no deal’ leader, who may have wanted the Brexit Party to win to strengthen their case.

Perhaps the biggest takeaway will be to remind many Conservatives that they cannot write off Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party and that they will need a leader who can peel off voters from the centre ground as well as the pro-Brexit right at a General Election.

Conclusion

Labour will be happy and relieved this morning while Farage’s Brexit Party will be deeply disappointed. The result in Peterborough will change little for the Conservatives other than to perhaps provide a slightly different narrative for their leadership election than the anticipated Brexit Party win might have.

But what happens next in British politics will depend on the outcome of the Conservative leadership contest and whether the new Prime Minister can finally deliver Brexit…