Newington’s Matthew Mann assesses the political situation in Brighton and Hove.
To say politics is lively in Brighton and Hove at the moment is an understatement. This time last year, Labour would have been confident heading in to this election with the possibility of taking majority leadership of the council, especially given the turmoil the Conservatives were in nationally, and indeed still are, over Brexit. Since then, numerous situations have unfolded to rock this boat, and several entirely different outcomes are on the table as to what might happen on May 2nd. Labour are no longer the largest party with two seats less than the Conservatives, and the Green Party holds the balance of power as it stands. Below, we go through the key factors that may decide this election one way or another.
Anti-Semitism
Where else but to start with the events of the last few days. Two weeks ago, Labour were forced to suspend a candidate, Alexandrina Braithwaite, after it was revealed she had shared conspiracy theories about the Rothschild family, saying that they were “responsible for almost every war on Earth” and that they were linked to “the Illuminati”.
If this wasn’t bad enough press for Labour, it then came to light that a local Labour member in Brighton had suggested on social media that the local party “need to march about this to the local synagogue in Hove”, in support of the suspended candidate. She went on to say “why are we continuing to accept this bulls***? Why aren’t we defending ourselves?” This has come in for an intense amount of criticism nationally, included from MPs and the Chair of the Jewish Labour movement, with local MP Lloyd Russel-Moyle confirming the member in question had been suspended.
Despite Labour’s swift action to suspend both candidate and member, it is no doubt creating negative attention for Labour in the area and is putting them on the back foot. The effect this has, particularly amongst Brighton and Hove’s 1% Jewish population, won’t be helpful to Labour, but whether it is enough to swing key seats away from them remains to be seen.
Momentum
The effect that Momentum will have in Brighton and Hove will be both one to watch and unpredictable. Certain areas may be expecting to see an uplift in the Labour share of the vote because of it: there are eleven Green Party councillors, and they are contenders across the city, but the impact of Jeremy Corbyn and the leftward shift of the Labour Party, with plenty of Momentum candidates selected in the area, means that they will be looking to take votes from the Greens. That said, this isn't necessarily straightforward. Brighton and Hove voted 68.6% to Remain in 2016, and the Greens may pick up Labour voters who are disaffected by the lack of committment to a second referendum.
On the other hand, there are certain areas of Brighton where this may not be received as well: working class, a Leave vote in the 2016 referendum, and competition coming in the form of the Conservative Party. There are several instances of Momentum candidates having been selected after the deselection of long-standing Labour councillors, and this is often less well received if they are coming from outside the area of where they are standing.
One such case is in Council Leader Cllr Dan Yates’ own ward, Moulsecoomb and Bevendean. Whilst he was re-selected, his fellow ward councillors Cllr Mo Marsh and Cllr Anne Meadows, both long time councillors and well known in the community, were de-selected last year in favour of two candidates from Hove. The effect of this, and with other such examples, will certainly be one to watch.
Defections
Labour were hit by two high-level defections in Brighton and Hove this years in February. First was the aforementioned Cllr Meadows, no doubt stung by her de-selection as Labour candidate, who joined the Conservative Party. Chiefly among the reasons she gave was anti-Semitism within the Labour Party, and she will now be standing for the Conservative in Moulsecoomb and Bevendean ward. Previously one that would have been considered reasonably safe by Labour, this could be a prime opportunity for the Conservatives to gain ground, given the profile Cllr Meadows already has in the area.
This defection was then followed by former Council Leader, Cllr Warren Morgan, leaving to join The Independent Group (first set up this year by disaffected Labour and Conservative MPs). Whilst he won’t be re-standing in the elections this time around, both these defections gave Labour real problems at their subsequent budget meeting. They are now no longer the largest party, with the Conservatives having 21 councillors, Labour 19, Green 11, and The Independent Group having 2, due to Cllr Michael Inkpin-Leissner, who left Labour in 2016, joining Cllr Morgan. As a result, Labour had to give several concessions to the Green Party in order to get their budget through, and would likely had to have entered in to a formal coalition had the elections not been so soon.
Conclusion
There are several possible outcomes from this election. The first, that Labour gains an outright majority, looks to be a stretch for them, given the numerous hits they have taken over the last several months. If it’s going to happen, they will have to both capitalise on both the Conservatives poor form nationally, along with the ability to take Green votes from the left, in order to make this happen. More likely is that Brighton and Hove remains under no-overall control. Whether this is with the Conservatives or Labour as the largest party, the Green Party being kingmakers will probably see Labour retain control of the council: most Green voters would not be able to countenance putting the Conservatives in to power.
