Newington Tom Court looks at the local elections in Cambridge and Peterborough
Cambridgeshire, like many other counties across England, is gearing up for a round of local elections on May 2nd. If we look at its motto “With one heart let us be wise”, it is reasonable to suggest that culturally and politically the county is united as one. Despite these wise words however, two of its most significant cities in recent years have painted a different picture and have shown that they are indeed different in many ways.
Over the last few elections, the Peterborough Council has constantly returned a significant number of seats for the Conservatives, and since 2018 have led a majority administration. In spite of their blue neighbours, however, Cambridge City Council has done quite the opposite. The Conservative Party has not had a significant presence in the city since its majority administration in 1979, and currently holds no seats on the Labour-led council. Labour has wielded a strong majority administration since the 2014 local elections, and shows absolutely no sign of letting their seats turn blue any time soon. So why do these two cities, separated by a mere thirty miles, return such a vast difference of political opinions?
Both city councils are covered by two parliamentary constituencies, and thus elect two Members of Parliament. Ironically, both councils elected a Labour and Conservative MP each in the 2017 snap election. It is worth mentioning however that since this election, Fiona Onasanya (Peterborough) has been suspended from the Labour Party and Heidi Allen (South Cambridgeshire) resigned from the Conservative Party to join The Independent Group (Change UK). Peterborough now has a Conservative MP and Independent MP to join their Conservative-controlled Council, and Cambridge has a Labour MP and an Independent MP (of sorts) to accompany their Labour-led Council.
There is also the distinct possibility that Fiona Onasanya might not even make the May 2nd elections secure in her position as the Member of Parliament for Peterborough. She currently faces a recall petition, prompted after she was found guilty of perverting the course of justice and subsequently serving a jail term. To trigger a snap election just 10% (under 7,000) of Peterborough’s electorate is needed to sign the petition. Considering that over 22,400 votes (46.8% of votes) were cast for the previous incumbent Tory MP Stewart Jackson in 2017, and that both Labour and the Conservatives have called on her to resign, it is not unreasonable to believe that this threshold will be met. What is not certain, however, is who will take her place. It is fair to assume that Fiona Onasanya will not be returning to Parliament if a by-election happens, but bearing in mind that since it was a mere 607 votes that elected her over Conservative rival Stewart Jackson, it will be of interest to see who the Labour Party put forward to ensure they continue to wield some influence in Peterborough.
It appears that the EU referendum also divided these two cities, with majorities in both areas for two very different opinions. Cambridge voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, with 73.85% voting to remain – nearly 50% of the cities electorate (47.69%). Yet voters in Peterborough returned a 60.89% support in favour of leaving the EU – higher than the national average.
So come May 2nd, will we continue to see these two neighbouring cities vote in the complete opposite direction of each other? In Cambridge, the council has 14 seats up for election. There are five Labour Councillors seeking re-election, and a further four who are stepping down. Of those seeking re-election, it is plausible to believe that they will be re-elected due to their respective ward’s high polling of Labour candidates resulting from the 2018 local elections. It is also arguable that Labour will further triumph in the Abbey and Coleridge wards, given the high polling the Labour candidates also received at the 2018 local elections. What is interesting, however, is how the West Chesterton ward and Trumpington ward will go. In 2018 these two wards were separated by mere inches in political differences; four votes were all that separated the elected Labour Councillor to the challenging Liberal Democrat in Trumpington, and in West Chesterton the Liberal Democrat candidate edged out the losing Labour candidate with a margin of four percent of the vote! Given Labour’s recent Brexit positioning however, along with the strong remain support in Cambridge, will we see Labour lose seats to the Liberal Democrats?
In Peterborough however, where the support to leave the EU was higher than the national average, two new parties are seeking to take advantage of the diminishing support of the traditional parties. These are the Social Democratic Party, who are fielding a candidate in Eye, Thorney & Newborough, and the Our Nation Party, established by former UKIP leader Henry Bolton, who are fielding a candidate in Fletton & Woodston. Both of these parties are extremely pro-Brexit, and will pose a serious challenge to the Conservative party and their majority of one seat on the Council.
What will happen on May 2nd is anyone’s guess, but what is without doubt is the huge differences between these two cities, and to what extent will current events shape the electorate’s often static positions. Cambridge and Peterborough may be two neighbouring cities, but their political ideologies could not be further away from each other.
