Newington's Sebastian Summers analyses Conservative Controlled Guildford amidst a Brexit backlash and the adoption of the borough’s controversial Local Plan
Guildford goes to the polls this May for all-out elections for the 48 seats on the council. In addition all parishes within the borough will also be holding their own elections, further heightening the level of local activism around the elections.
Guildford’s Local Plan has been in development for over seven years, with the Plan on more than one occasion refused by the Planning Inspectorate. Following this drawn out process Guildford’s Full Council is now ready to vote on the adoption of its Local Plan on the 25th April.
The Conservatives currently have a strong presence on Guildford Borough Council (Conservative 31, Liberal Democrat 8, Independent Alliance 4, Guildford Greenbelt Group 3, Labour 2), however with the Local Plan vote days before the election coupled with Brexit, and corresponding Conservative Party backlash, there is a potential for a significant weakening of the parties control in the Borough.
Although the current number of Conservative seats on the council look healthy, a net loss of 7 seats would see the council fall into a state of No Overall Control. The most likely outcome would probably be that the Conservatives will incur losses, but will retain control of the borough. Just. The key factors in play that will influence this are set out below.
The Local Plan
The development of the Local Plan has been highly contentious, with large strategic allocation sites released from Green Belt being the issues most closely contested. Wisley Airfield is the case and point.
The Conservative administration is taking somewhat of an electoral risk by scheduling the vote of the Local Plan prior to the elections. Recent chatter within the borough has focussed on how the local Conservatives are concentrating on local waste collection rather than the Local Plan in the campaign literature.
The administration could be congratulated on scheduling the vote prior to the election as this is being driven by the calculation that passing the Local Plan is more important than the upcoming elections. A poor election result would likely change the internal dynamics of the Conservative group, and could see the Conservative lose control of Guildford Borough Council, potentially delaying or putting the Local Plan in doubt.
In short there are few vote winners here for the Conservatives, with sentiment around the Local Plan set to only benefit opposition parties and independent candidates.
Established, Mobilised and Motivated Opposition
The Local Plan has been such a drawn out process that this election will be the second where it is a key factor. In 2015 the Guildford Green Belt Group stood in the north east of the Borough and won three seats. Coupled with this, the intervening four years have seen four previously Conservative councillors leave the group and establish the Independent Alliance. Further, AT this election the Independent Alliance has renamed as Residents for Guildford and Villages, and have nine candidates standing. This is coupled with four candidates standing for the Guildford Greenbelt Group.
An Already Significant Number of Established Marginals
Viewing historical results in isolation there are already seven wards in Borough that can be considered marginal, where one party holds a slim majority, or the ward is already split between parties. From this analysis, based on purely historical results, there are perhaps up to ten seats that could change hands.
Brexit as a National Issue
Guildford voted 56.2% in favour of Remain. With Brexit ‘not going well’, and an established Liberal Democrat party and sentiment in the Borough, this national factor is likely to have a larger impact here than elsewhere.
This point is currently being spelled out in polls conducted at a national and local level. This data has been substantiated by increased polling and attitude research being undertaken following the extension to Brexit process and likely holding of European elections later in May.
In short, this factor again will only hurt the Conservatives nationwide. However it is important to note where these votes will go. In Guildford, due to the presence of pro-Remain Lib Dems and a small but spirited Labour party, the Brexit factor is likely to push votes to independent (anti-development candidates) or reduce turnout.
Conclusion
The Conservatives are likely to incur losses this May. This is based on the combination of established marginal seats and mobilised opposition coupled with the dual set of unfavourable issues of the Local Plan and Brexit.
In short, perhaps, the most telling prediction of how the Conservatives will fair is the pre-election Local Plan vote. Cllr Spooner, and his established allies in the Executive have taken the view that following years of work on the Local Plan, it is the most important issue for the borough and needs to be passed now for its own good.
Looking forward, in a borough with a Planning Committee that will likely have fewer Conservatives, future development in Guildford is sure to remain contentious, allocated or not.
