In the run-up to the local elections, attention often focusses on what might happen in major cities and unitary boroughs, but it’s always useful to look more widely. In the North West, one of the most closely-fought election campaigns is currently taking place up in Lancaster, where political control currently sits on a knife edge. John Farrell surveys the scene for Newington
Lancaster City Council is a non-unitary authority, so it sits within a two-tier structure along with Lancashire County Council. Aside from the City of Lancaster itself – home to a major university – it takes in other places with their own distinct identities such as Morecambe – historically a seaside resort – as well as the port of Heysham, also home to two nuclear power stations, Carnforth, as well as a large, much more rural area to the west, containing various smaller towns and villages, and even a section of the Yorkshire Dales National Park.
The entire council is up for election every four years, with this next happening on Thursday 2nd May this year. Whilst Labour have been in charge of the Council since 2015, this has only been as a majority (due to by-elections and defections) since 2017, currently holding 31 of the 60 seats. Opposition comes in the form of The Conservatives with 14 seats, the Green Party who have seven, four non-aligned independents, and two further councillors, formerly of the Morecambe Bay Independents, who now sit as an “Independent Group”. In addition to this, two councillors are currently recorded by the Council as having had the Party whip removed, but as explained further on, can’t necessarily be considered independents. All this points to a rather complicated political history.
Of the two councillors who have had the Party whip removed, one is Cllr Charlie Edwards (Bare Ward), who had the Conservative Whip removed in February this year, following a disagreement with his colleagues about Council Tax Benefits. This has been an issue Cllr Edwards has continually clashed with Conservative colleagues on, having previously said “This gives us the opportunity to say we’re not nasty Tories” when backing a Labour motion on the issue. Confusingly for outsiders, Cllr Edwards is standing again as Conservative Candidate in Bare Ward on 2nd May, as well as remaining the Conservative Lancashire County Councillor for Morecambe South Ward. The other councillor without the Party whip is Cllr Andrew Gardiner (Overton Ward) who was also previously a member of the Conservative Group, who continues to sit as a Conservative Councillor for Heysham Ward on Lancaster County Council and will be standing in Kellet Ward on 2nd May.
Three long-serving Conservative councillors have been deselected as candidates this time around, including the current Leader of the Conservative Group, Cllr Peter Williamson (Upper Lune Valley Ward), Cllr Roger Mace (Kellet Ward) and Cllr Nigel Goodrich (Silverdale Ward, and Chair of the Overview & Scrutiny Committee). Former Mayor Cllr Mace, as a result of his deselection, has now left the Conservative Party and sits as a non-aligned independent, and has announced that he will be backing the Liberal Democrat candidate in Kellet ward in the upcoming elections.
The Conservatives haven’t been the only party in Lancaster to be hit by such issues however, with two councillors in John O’Gaunt ward, Cllr Liz Scott and Cllr Oscar Thynne, having left the Labour Party to sit as independents in the last four years, whilst two Green Party councillors, Cllr Sam Armstrong and Cllr Andrew Kay, both defected to join the Labour Party.
Regardless of whether Labour remain in control after the election, there will be a new Leader of the Council, given that long serving Council Leader Cllr Eileen Blamire has announced she will be standing down at these elections. There isn’t necessarily a clear and obvious successor in the Labour Group. Of senior Labour figures who stood for leadership positions after the 2015 elections, only Deputy Leader of the Labour Group Cllr Darren Clifford remains and he may well be tempted to throw his hat in to the ring. Of the current Cabinet, several are standing down or not said to be interested in the role, which may pave the way for a more inexperienced or even newly elected councillor to take the leadership. One such figure is Dr Erica Lewis, who is a current Lancashire county councillor and candidate for the North West in the European elections, and is thought to be keen on the role.
Given the diverse nature of the area, it is unlikely that there will be any kind of universal swing across the district. Labour will be looking enhance their majority, and potentially make use of the “Corbyn Effect” to win seats from the Greens in the university city of Lancaster, in wards such as Scotforth West, Marsh, Castle, and University and Scotforth Rural. Equally though, the Greens may feel confident of picking up Remain votes from Labour, given the lack of a Liberal Democrat presence in the city. In the Morecambe area, Labour and the Conservatives will be fighting for some of the same seats, where support for Brexit is much higher amongst voters for both parties, as well as potentially dissatisfaction with their current positions on the issue. This could potentially lead to some success for independent candidates, but UKIP don’t appear to be organised well enough in the area to pick up enough votes to make a difference.
Overall, it is overwhelmingly likely that Labour will remain the largest party, the big question is whether they can add to their majority to make themselves secure, or whether they will slip back in to a minority with a couple of seat losses. Should this happen, there will be tricky decisions to take for the new Labour Group Leader, who will have to decide whether to run the Council as a minority administration, as Cllr Blamire chose to in 2015, or to go back to a formal coalition with the Greens as has been the case previously.
Lancaster’s Green councillors have taken a strong line against the development of Green Belt and farmland and have previously proposed much lower housing targets than Labour or the Conservatives, who have looked to use the Local Plan process to better manage such development rather than prevent it entirely.
If Labour wins additional seats this week and doesn’t have to rely on the support of the Greens, this should make the planning process more straightforward, particularly on larger schemes where green field sites and Green Belt release are involved. On the other hand, any deal between Labour and the Greens may involve a reduction in housing targets, a greater focus on prioritising the development of brownfield sites, or the need to increase density at remaining sites.
