The political map of London did not change much during last May’s local election. However, the elections did confirm that Labour continues to dominate throughout the capital. Newington’s Associate Tony Halmos takes a look ahead to London’s next major elections in 2020.

Assuming the UK leaves the EU in March 2019, and thus there will be no European Parliament elections in 2019, the next London-wide elections will be for the Mayor and the Assembly in May 2020. The current Mayor, Labour’s Sadiq Khan looks set to win re-election, given the political make-up of London and the current unpopularity of the Conservatives, not least because of Brexit. The Conservatives are currently choosing their candidate, due to be announced in time for their Birmingham Conference at the beginning of October. 

Labour is under heightened challenge, however, on three main fronts: housing, crime and transport. First, on housing, the problem Sadiq Khan faces is stark: he has set a target – in the draft London Plan – of 66,000 newly-built affordable homes a year – and he is simply not going to meet that target. As this is still, as it was in the 2016 London election, the number one issue facing Londoners, this will present severe difficulties for his re-election campaign.

Second, crime. The rise in knife and other violent crime has returned this issue to the forefront, where it has been in previous Mayoral elections. Recent falls had taken it out of the spotlight, but it now presents a substantial challenge to the Mayor.

Third, transport. In many ways Sadiq Khan has a good story to tell, partly on the back of substantial advances since the office of Mayor and TfL were set up in 2000. The tube upgrade programme continues apace, and the bus network in London is wider and more intensely used than anywhere else in England. The current Mayor is also having some successes in tackling growing air pollution from traffic and provision for cyclists has greatly improved.

However, the delays to the opening of Crossrail have hit. Jointly responsible for the project, both the Transport Secretary and the Mayor are going to have to share the blame and deal with the consequences. For the Mayor this is a reputational risk. Further funding may immediately be required to deal with the newly-found problems. This then raises questions for future projects, notably Crossrail 2. The Treasury – always wary of large projects of this kind – has had its hand strengthened against the Transport Department and the Mayor.

The other main uncertainty in London politics concerns the change in the Labour Party. The small change in Labour’s overall electoral position in the May elections concealed larger shifts within the Party as forces gather around the strengthened Corbyn leadership. A new Labour Mayor in Newham, following the ousting of Sir Robin Wales, the substantial shift to the left in Haringey, following the removal of Claire Kober – who was also replaced as Chair of  London Councils by the Leader of Southwark, Peter John  – and the pending threats to a number of MPs of reselection battles and their replacement by more Corbyn-friendly candidates, all provide an unsettling backdrop for the pending Mayoral election. Added to this, the current crisis in Labour over alleged anti-semitism could have further damaging effects, let alone the unforeseen impact of both Brexit and likely constituency boundary changes.

All in all, while Labour’s position in London may be strong, it is not fixed, and there is likely to be considerable turbulence – open to exploitation by the other parties – in the run-up to London’s next major elections in 2020.