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Look ahead: Local elections, plus Brexit


Look ahead: Local elections, plus Brexit

Katie Milne looks at what to expect over the next fortnight.

Today, more than 4,000 seats across 150 councils are up for grabs. The first electoral test of public opinion since last year’s General Election comes as polling suggests that satisfaction with the current Conservative leadership is down seven points, to 29%. While the Windrush scandal and Brexit are expected to hurt the Conservative Party, the ongoing anti-Semitism crisis may also limit Labour’s success.

Nonetheless, predictions point to Labour gaining a 40-year high of 200 seats. Key results in London will be Wandsworth and Westminster – boroughs with strong Conservative history, which are now believed to be within reach of Labour.

In Westminster, Brexit Secretary David Davis MP will face a grilling from MPs. Questions will undoubtedly cover the Government’s position on the future EU-UK customs relationship, reflecting widespread concern in Parliament that withdrawal from the Customs Union could result in a “hard” border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

Over the coming fortnight, the Cabinet will be under increasing pressure to decide a practical solution to this question. While the Prime Minister yesterday chaired a meeting of the key Brexit Cabinet Committee – attempting to find a position commanding Cabinet consensus – it is far from certain that such a conclusion will be reached.

Crucial to the meeting’s outcome will be the view of the new Home Secretary Sajid Javid MP. His hard-nosed attitude is expected to tip the balance away from the Prime Minister’s preferred “customs partnership” solution, which many Brexiteers see as unworkable. The meeting follows a warning from the EU’s Chief Negotiator, Michel Barnier, that talks will collapse if both parties do not reach an agreement by the EU Council Summit in June.

In the House of Lords, amendments to the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill 2017-19 will be tidied up during Report Stages before Third Reading on Wednesday 16 May. Peers have defeated the Government on a range of issues, most recently by voting to give MPs the power to stop the UK leaving the EU without a deal, or to force the Government to return to negotiations. Once stages in the Lords have been completed, the revised Bill will be sent back to the Commons for consideration. Conservative Peers have so far proved their readiness to defy their party vote on the Bill – the question is how many Conservative MPs will be willing to do the same.

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