Jack Worlidge looks at how the Brexit negotiations could progress over recess - and what it could mean for the Government.

As MPs head on their holidays, Downing Street will be breathing a sigh of relief. It was touch and go at times – but despite bombshell resignations, nail-biting votes and swirling rumours of imminent leadership challenges, the Government has squeaked through to summer with its refreshed Brexit vision just about intact.

The Prime Minister’s abortive attempt to bring recess forward spoke volumes about the pressures she faced. The idea was that forcing MPs away from Westminster earlier would stymie any leadership plots, and prevent the dissatisfaction in the Conservative Party from boiling over.

As many have pointed out, however, when the House of Commons returns in September (for just one week), little will have changed. The Chequers agreement still dismays Brexiteers, and Remainers are still stung by the Government’s last-minute decision to accept Brexiteer amendments to the Trade Bill.

When MPs return, their mood will largely depend on how negotiations with the EU have progressed. The aim is to conclude a deal by October – which includes finalising the Withdrawal Agreement (already 80% agreed), and reaching a political declaration on the framework for the future partnership.

While the Government’s White Paper was met with slightly more positive noises from Brussels, there remain points of contention – and the EU’s solution to these is likely to involve further concessions from the UK. With UK politicians (both in and outside of Government) insisting that the White Paper is a 'take it or leave it' offer, any signal that the Government is considering further concessions will be met with fury when the Commons returns.

The conclusion that many are drawing is that, given the parliamentary arithmetic and the EU’s likely negotiating approach, the prospect of “no deal” is now closer than ever.

A lot can happen in a few weeks – MPs will have plenty to discuss in September.