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Looking ahead to 2018 - predicting the unpredictable?


Looking ahead to 2018 - predicting the unpredictable?

Caitlin Sweeney looks at what to expect next year.

And so another turbulent year in politics draws to a close. After last year’s dual shocks of Trump and Brexit, few would have thought 2017 could surpass it, with the Prime Minister’s mantra of “strong and stable” the order of the day.

This all changed with the triggering of Article 50, shortly followed by the announcement of a snap General Election and the fallout. Who could have predicted the Conservatives losing their majority, Labour’s shock recovery in the polls, or a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP?

While at times the progress of our exit from the European Union has seemed stagnant and sluggish, in recent weeks the Prime Minister’s last-minute dash to Brussels and the Government’s defeat on a meaningful vote on the final deal for MPs has kept us all on our toes.

This recent political upheaval has made life rather difficult for those of us whose job it is to look ahead and advise clients on what is to come, and as such many would think trying to predict what 2018 will hold is foolish. So amidst all of this turmoil, what do we know with certainty that the coming year will bring?

A safe bet is that Brexit will continue to dominate the political agenda. Following agreement on the first phase of negotiations, discussions between the UK and EU negotiating teams will move on to trade and a transitional arrangement in the New Year. At Westminster, the Government is likely to face further difficulties as the EU Withdrawal Bill completes its remaining stages in the House of Commons and reaches the House of Lords, where it has no overall majority. Tricky amendments and ping pong between the two Houses may delay the Bill’s passage through to Royal Assent, currently expected in the first quarter of 2018.

Following the decision to move the Budget to the autumn, the Chancellor will publish his Spring Statement on 13 March. In recent years these updates on the state of the economy have contained “giveaway” policies, and many will be watching carefully following the poor growth projections in last month’s Budget.

The Government is also due to publish its long-awaited response to the Taylor Review. It is rumoured that they will accept “most of” Matthew Taylor’s proposals, but it remains to be seen how they will handle the most controversial of these, notably the new sub-category of “dependent contractor” covering those working in the gig economy.

As the NHS turns seventy, we can expect a renewed focus on the health service’s sustainability and funding.  The Government’s welfare reforms, which come into force throughout the year, will also be scrutinised, while the forthcoming Energy Price Cap Bill will ensure that energy policy stays high on the agenda.

All of this – alongside continued rumours of a thorough Cabinet reshuffle – suggests that 2018 could be as full of surprises as the last two years.

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