In the three months that have passed since the UK voted to leave the EU, the Government has been criticised on both sides of the Channel for not providing details on the timing and the process for Brexit let alone what the outcome might look like. For weeks questions have been rebuffed by ministers with the stock answer of ‘Brexit means Brexit’ and a repetition of the Government’s unwillingness to ‘provide a running commentary’. With so little information to go on, all eyes have been on the Conservative Party’s autumn conference for glimmers of the UK Government’s timetable and negotiating stance.

The Prime Minister wasted little time in setting out her stall to the Party faithful gathered in Birmingham. To rapturous applause she committed the Government to triggering Article 50 no later than the end of March 2017. Significantly outnumbered by Brexiters, only a few small pockets of nervous looking Conservative Party Remainers were visible on the balconies as she said that the Great Repeal Bill will feature in the next Queen’s Speech, dismantling the European Communities Act 1972 and enshrining all existing EU law into British law.

With the timing and domestic legislative mechanism for Brexit confirmed, the Prime Minister moved on to the broad brushstrokes of her vision for what a new deal with the EU might look like. New being the operative word. Those of us in the auditorium, and those watching the speech on TV, were challenged to shake off old ways of thinking about the EU and the UK’s relationship with it. The UK is not going to be a Norway or a Switzerland, we were told, we are not going to have a ‘hard’ or a ‘soft’ Brexit – we are going to have customized relationship with the EU.  Her promises to take full control of immigration and refusing to accept the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice are suggestive however of a rather ‘hard Brexit’, where ending the free movement of people would come at the cost of leaving the single market. Home Secretary Amber Rudd also suggested at the conference that businesses start publishing the number of foreign staff on their books. ‘Hard Brexit’ is what the City fears and the markets wobbled once more: the pound fell to a new low against the dollar, with investors increasingly concerned about the risks of complete severance from the EU. 

The tone of her speech was strident and uncompromising.  Those mounting a legal challenge to the Prime Minister using the royal prerogative to trigger Article 50 were told firmly to back off and accept the result.  It was speech directed squarely at arresting any concerns from those in the Party who campaigned for Brexit that, as a Remainer (albeit a quiet Remainer), Mrs May might look to slow the process down or do a double deal. And it worked – the Brexiters were jubilant as Government ministers repeatedly reiterated that they had heard the ‘roar’ of the British public and could be trusted to deliver.  It was a masterclass in party political discipline.

May’s announcements were politically astute in the short term, but playing her hand so soon ahead of triggering Article 50 could potentially lead to further instability both economically and in Parliament, where her small majority will be increasingly noticeable. Could it be that the Cabinet Ministers she recently rebuked for veering off the Brexit script – which she then delivered at conference – have brought her on side?

The conference, however, was not just attended by members – business was out in force to try and get a sense of the lay of the land. Speaking to representatives from a number of sectors, many of whom who had also been to the Labour conference the week before and found a party still focused on internal politics, the sense was that they were happy to have the headline but were eager to get the full story of the negotiating position. 

Mrs May’s Government has six months to draft it and it will be vital for those organisations who will be affected by Brexit, whether directly or indirectly, to understand and feed into that process.  An opportunity to do this is being coordinated by the UK Permanent Representation to the EU in Brussels, which is encouraging businesses to provide data on the impact of Brexit in their sector by mid-November.

These contributions are all the more essential when the capacity of the Civil Service is stretched like at no other time in peace time and British officials – many of whom, until three months ago, were unfamiliar with even the basic principles of a customs union – will face counterparts in Brussels who have lived and breathed trade negotiations for decades.

The Government is also unlikely to be pressured much by the Opposition. Even on the back of Jeremy Corbyn’s decisive re-election as party leader, Labour is struggling to put its own house in order on the issue.  Prior to his Labour Party Conference speech, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell had said Brexit would be his ‘number one item’, yet his speech lacked any concrete detail on what Labour proposes for leaving the EU. While Corbyn will attempt to piece a fractured Labour Party back together this autumn, a number of unsupportive Labour MPs will be speculating on whether they will be subject to a deselection process to be replaced by Corbynite MPs.  In the longer term, this could potentially trigger a split in the party.