Matthew Mann assesses the likelihood of a national unity government to tackle COVID-19 following the election of a new Labour Leader

The Labour leadership contest, which has been ongoing since the beginning of the year, is finally drawing to a close this week, with the winner being announced on Saturday. Barring any surprises, the overwhelming favourite to win is Sir Keir Starmer, the Shadow Brexit Secretary. He has presented himself as a unity candidate, aiming to be a more electable, credible leader than Jeremy Corbyn and without the same level of baggage, whilst not criticising him directly and keeping a number of the policies that are well liked among the membership. By doing this, and staffing his campaign with key figures from across the party, he has gained wide ranging support and built upon the popularity he gained last year among members by pushing the leadership towards a second referendum policy.

Starmer faces beginning his leadership like no other Labour Leader has in peacetime. He will not be able to lay out his vision for the country for a significant period of time, and instead is faced with responding to how the government is dealing with the coronavirus crisis as his main priority. This is made even harder by the upturning of the political tables. With the current Conservative government bringing in measures more regularly associated with the Corbynite left, such as a massively increased welfare state, the effective nationalisation of rail services and even discussion about whether broadband should be free, Labour are having to rapidly adjust their attack lines. So, Starmer may be wondering, where does Labour go from here?

That could, in the short term, be taken out of their hands. In the wake of the coronavirus, there have been calls for a national unity government to see the country through the crisis until it is back to normal. While many of these suggestions have come from those outside of government, this has come from some on the Conservative benches as well. Current backbencher and former Transport minister George Freeman MP has been among those to call for the “sensible” Starmer to be invited to the Covid Cabinet and Cobra meetings. Given the scale of the national emergency, Freeman has said the likely loss of life “demands a suspension of politics as usual”.

Would, however, Boris Johnson want to invite Keir Starmer into his cabinet, and does he need to? There are a number of reasons why Johnson will want to avoid forming a unity government. Chiefly among them is that doing so would undoubtedly lend credibility to a Starmer-led Labour Party, making it much more of a threat at the next General Election. We only need to look at the UK in 1945 to see an example of what he might fear. Churchill may have been respected by the country for his war efforts, but Clement Attlee was polling better than the Prime Minister throughout 1945, and was able to combine his more radical policy platform for rebuilding the country with having proven himself as trustworthy in the war cabinet. Labour won a landslide victory. Forming a unity government would legitimise Starmer, and many potential attack lines at the next election, particularly on Labour’s credibility, would be made redundant.

On top of this, Johnson has a secure majority in the House of Commons, is doing well in the polls, and has the backing of his party, particularly because of the measures introduced by the Chancellor Rishi Sunak. That could change. Questions are already being asked of the government regarding its approach to securing the necessary number of ventilators, PPE, and testing kits. If these questions build, and the UK finds itself in a situation where its death rate starts to significantly outstrip that of other countries, then momentum can build and Johnson will find himself under further pressure.

Inviting Starmer to form a temporary unity government, while a radical solution, would almost certainly alleviate this to an extent. It would be a sign he is willing to do whatever is necessary to bring the country together, and would likely be well-received by the public in a show of putting the country above partisan politics. While it would strengthen Labour in the long-term, it would also severely inhibit any attacks from the party on government strategy. Unified governments in a time of national crisis regularly receive a boost in popularity – just take the spike in approval ratings for George W. Bush after 9/11, when the Democrats rallied around him, as an example.

Another school of thought among Conservatives which may increase the receptiveness to this is that if things are going wrong, then they need to be able to share responsibility with Labour. If the situation worsens, they do not want the crisis to be solely associated with the Conservatives.

The other question – were the offer to come – is whether Starmer would accept. There would undoubtedly be significant pressure on him not to, particularly from the membership and the left of the Labour Party. Some would view such an act as getting into bed with the Conservatives – Nick Clegg remains unforgiven in many quarters for the Coalition Government of 2010-2015. In a time of crisis however, he would almost certainly accept, and with the blessing of most MPs. He only has to look to Clement Attlee for a success story.

In truth, it is unlikely we will see this scenario play out. Johnson will want to avoid giving Labour credibility wherever possible, and may not think any Conservative colleague is bold enough to challenge his leadership during a national crisis. If the government comes under increasing pressure from all sides however, and he is determined to remain in charge, it is an option. He and his aides would be well-advised to keep it in the back pocket for when they have no other cards to play.