Ciaran Gill looks at how the Internal Market Bill going through Parliament at the moment could impact the UK's chances of securing a trade deal with the US

If someone had decided to completely cocoon themselves from the news for a fortnight, they’d be forgiven for thinking that their subsequent engagement with the latest developments in Westminster was proof that they had discovered a wormhole and somehow ended up back in 2019.

Sadly for them, however, and their chance to buy shares in Zoom at 2019 prices, the reality is that Brexit is back. Its vehicle? The Internal Market Bill, a piece of legislation that has been introduced by the Government to ensure that goods can move easily across all home nations of the UK once the Brexit transition period comes to an end in December.

Last week, Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis told Parliament that the Government’s Internal Market Bill could potentially impact the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement so much that it would breach international law in a “very specific and limited way”.

In order to ensure the free exchange of goods across the constituent nations of the UK, Lewis confirmed that ministers would be able to disapply the provisions of the Withdrawal Agreement, signed by the UK and the EU less than a year ago. Under the Bill,   the Government would have the power to override sections of the Northern Ireland Protocol, the function of which is to ensure that a soft border is maintained on the island of Ireland.

Over the past week, figures from Boris Johnson’s Government have said that the Internal Market Bill has been introduced, in part, to protect the Good Friday Agreement, which guarantees both North-South and East-West relations.

This has been disputed vehemently by both the European Union and the Irish Government, arguing that upholding 1998 peace accord was at the heart of the years of negotiations over the Northern Ireland protocol.

Since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, cross-border co-operation has flourished, supporting business, political, social and cultural development on both sides of the border. Identities in border communities across the island, moreover, have been  predicated upon the existence of a soft border separating Ireland from the United Kingdom.

Dublin and Brussels’ refusal to believe that the Internal Market Bill is an attempt to preserve the fragile edifice upon which Northern Ireland exists can also be found in Washington DC.

In April 2019, Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, travelled to  to the north-west of Ireland. On this trip, Pelosi and a delegation of other US politicians paid a visit to the barely visible border which divides the two counties of Derry/Londonderry and Donegal, located in Northern Ireland and Ireland respectively. Addressing the UK-EU Brexit negotiations that were ongoing at the time, Pelosi said that if the UK’s manner of leaving the EU threatened the Good Friday Agreement then the UK could forget about striking a trade deal with the US.

Also on this trip was Congressman Richard Neal, a Democrat representing  Massachusetts. Neal echoed Pelosi’s warning that any UK-US trade deal would be imperilled if the Good Friday Agreement was to be collateral damage. Neal’s statement was significant  given his  role as Chairman of the House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, which scrutinises American trade deals.

Fast forward one year , as Westminster debates the ramifications of the Internal Market Bill, and both have again come out to repeat their warning that a UK-US trade deal cannot be agreed if the  Good Friday Agreement is put at risk. “Our message is very clear”, Speaker Pelosi said, “self-determination is what the people of the UK have determined – their course of action, that’s up to them. But it’s not up to them to think that they will be rewarded if they mess with the Good Friday accords”.

Trade deals in the United States are negotiated by the executive branch but need to secure congressional approval to come into force. In 2016, the Republicans controlled both Houses of Congress but the mid-term elections of 2018 saw the Democrat Party take control of the House of Representatives, assuming a much greater role in determining which trade deals the US can enter into.

Democrats will hope to acquire even more power in November, of course. The convergence of opinion within the party  was illustrated last week when Anthony Blinken, Joe Biden’s senior foreign policy adviser, tweeted that the Democrat presidential candidate is “committed to preserving the hard-earned peace & stability in Northern Ireland”. “As the UK and EU work out their relationship”, he wrote, “any arrangements must protect the Good Friday Agreement and prevent the return of a hard border”.

The strength of the Irish-American caucus, particularly within the Democratic Party, combined with the Government’s Internal Market Bill have therefore collided to create potential future obstacles to a UK-US trade deal .

It is difficult to ascertain whether junctures like these are products of a broader UK strategy. What is definitely true, however, is that trust and obligation underpin any large trading relationship, and potential partners in new trade deals with the UK will be closely following the passage of the Internal Market Bill through Parliament over the coming weeks.

Photo by Jaime Casap on Unsplash