Director Christine Quigley writes about the Irish general election and what the results mean
With the final results now tallied, it’s clear that last weekend’s election in Ireland represented a seismic shift in the politics of the Republic. Sinn Féin won the highest share of the popular vote, translating to 37 seats in the 160-seat Dáil, while the two historically largest political parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, won 38 and 35 seats respectively (the former including the seat of the Ceann Comhairle (Speaker) elected automatically). Health and the housing crisis were the biggest motivating factors in the election, particularly driving young people to the polls to support Sinn Féin, while Fine Gael’s strategy of focusing on the previous Government’s record in the Brexit negotiations backfired as voters focused on domestic concerns.
While the vote share and significant number of TDs elected with high margins over the quota on the first count represent a stunning success for Sinn Féin, the party’s strategy of running only 42 candidates following less impressive European and local election performances may yet cost the party its role in Government. Instead of electing more Sinn Féin TDs, the party’s high vote share transferred to left-wing parties, with the Solidarity-People Before Profit grouping particularly benefiting. The Green Party also had a good night, taking twelve seats, while Labour, historically the third party, will be disappointed in its performance, returning only five deputies and losing the seat held by Joan Burton, former Tánaiste, since 2002.
The overall vote share shows a realignment of Irish politics, with the combined ‘right’ vote of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael representing 43.1% of the vote, while the ‘left’ vote took 41.5%. However, this left vote is split between five parties – Sinn Féin, Solidarity-PBP, the Social Democrats, Green Party and Labour, making coalition more challenging. Independents continued to poll strongly, with 19 returned, including four who topped the polls in their constituencies.
There are now three main scenarios for the formation of a new Government:
1. A ‘grand coalition’: The two Civil War parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, have never before entered into coalition, but share common ground as centre-right parties. With Fianna Fáil on a slightly higher number of seats, this could put FF’s Micheál Martin in as Taoiseach, but would still require support from either a third party, potentially the Greens, or from a number of Independents. However, differences in stance between the more socially-liberal Fine Gael and socially-conservative Fianna Fáil could lead to less focus on major social changes than under the last Government. Fianna Fáil has ruled this out as an option, but this may change as coalition negotiations progress in the coming weeks.
2. FF-SF agreement: While Fine Gael has formally ruled out a coalition with Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil’s language has softened over the weekend on this. However, through the election count FF was expecting to be a larger party in the Dáil than Sinn Féin, which is now not the case, and opens the question of whether the Taoiseach in this scenario would be FF’s Martin or SF’s Mary-Lou McDonald. McDonald has suggested that she would not consider going into government with Fianna Fáil, but the parties share a common republican heritage and pledges on making renting more affordable and recruiting more doctors and nurses.
3. A green-red coalition: The emerging most likely option is a coalition of republican, socialist and green parties on the left, bringing together Sinn Féin with the Green Party, Solidarity-PBP, the Social Democrats and Labour. With only 66 TDs, this would fall short of a majority, but Sinn Féin’s transfers also benefited several left-wing independents who could support this Government, and former SF TD Peadar Tóibín, now re-elected as an Aontú representative after leaving SF over its pro-choice stance on abortion, might also consider supporting this grouping. While rainbow coalitions in Ireland are not without precedent, such a large grouping could be relatively unstable, making it harder for a Sinn Féin Taoiseach to push through legislation. However, this could suit SF, who may want an early election in order to run more candidates and gain a stronger position in the 34th Dáil.
Coalition negotiations will continue over the coming weeks. Whatever the outcome, it’s likely that significant pledges from Sinn Féin will be taken forward by the next Government, including a new public housing programme, opening 1,500 new hospital beds, abolishing the Universal Social Charge on the first €30,000 earned and investing €1bn in public transport.
