Tom Court looks at the race to succeed Ruth Davidson as the Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party

Whilst the Labour Party squabbles down south, the Scottish Conservatives have begun selecting a replacement for Ruth Davidson - who was seen by many to be one of the Union’s strongest assets. A fiercely passionate and credible politician who kept Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP on their toes in Holyrood, hers will be big boots to fill.  

Naturally, all heads have turned to the Party’s Deputy Leader (and current interim leader) Jackson Carlaw (Member of the Scottish Parliament for Eastwood). This is not the first time Carlaw has served as interim leader; he covered Davidson when she went on maternity leave in September 2018 for eight months. Currently the Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Culture, Tourism and External Affairs, he has been Davidson’s deputy since 2011. Unsurprisingly, his candidacy was confirmed as soon as nominations opened in January 2020, with Carlaw stating that the Party “must take the fight to Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP”. He has stated a desire for the party under his direction to appeal to “middle Scotland”, as the country readies itself for the 2021 Holyrood election.

A key policy topic emerging from his campaign has been education; Carlaw recently accused Sturgeon’s Government of being “more concerned with hiding their record than correcting it” and has stated that he will increase the number of teachers in Scotland by 2,000. Carlaw has also set out immediate plans to halt the SNP’s car parking tax, which would see commuters pay up to £500 to park at their own workplace, and to bring income taxes in line with the rest of the UK.

Carlaw’s position as favourite was confirmed with the backing of senior Conservative colleagues, including Adam Tomkins MSP and Murdo Fraser MSP who previous ran against him in 2011. With a campaign chaired jointly by Liam Kerr MSP and Rachel Hamilton MSP, the Shadow Ministers for Justice and Culture respectively, Carlaw has the support that most candidates only dream of. He has even picked up the support of every single one of the Conservative Party’s local Council Leaders in Scotland. There are, however, one or two slight issues that may cause Carlaw and his supporters to pause before planning the victory parade.

It goes without saying that no candidate is squeaky clean and Jackson Carlaw is no exception, having made a number of comments on sensitive issues that have been seized upon by SNP and Labour. SNP MSP Jenny Gilruth stated that Carlaw “has simply acted as an apologist for the worst excesses of Tory policy when it comes to issues like austerity and Universal Credit” and that “the Scottish Tories’ would be-leader is happy to see the party pulled even further to the right”. Carlaw’s bid to become the next Leader of the Scottish Conservatives will certainly not be as simple as many may have expected – especially with the emergence of relatively new MSP Michelle Ballantyne, the only challenger to stop Carlaw’s imminent coronation.

Trained as a nurse in London, Ballantyne has held positions in health service management, manufacturing, and charitable organisations, before being elected as a Councillor for the Scottish Borders and, finally, an MSP for Scotland South in 2017. She was shortly appointed after her election to the role of spokesperson for Childcare and Early Years. A year later, Ballantyne was promoted to the Shadow frontbench as spokesperson for Social Security, securing her role as a key member of the Scottish Conservative Party. Capitalising on her vast and diverse career, she stated that “if the Scottish Conservatives are to be serious about levelling up and defeating the SNP in 2021 there is work to do. I believe I have the background, the experience and the ability to lead the Scottish Conservatives from a party of opposition to a party of government”.

Her campaign has focussed on her promise to create a Scotland “that works for working people” by having a fairer tax system, a justice system that prioritises victims’ rights over all else, and schools that will inspire and develop all pupils, regardless of their background. She is seen as being on the right of the Conservative Party, much more so than Carlaw, and may attract more support than expected from the rank and file membership.

However, Ballantyne, like Carlaw, has also faced criticism from her opponents. Her defence of the UK Government’s two-child policy sparked outrage amongst Holyrood colleagues in 2018, attracting criticism from Labour and SNP MSPs alike.  Scottish Labour Leader Richard Leonard MSP stated Ballantyne’s previous comments were “nasty and archaic”, and SNP MSP Tom Arthur claimed her words were some of the most disgraceful he had ever heard. Ballantyne repeatedly refused to apologise – claiming the media and critics alike of having an “emotional reaction”. More recently in 2020, she reiterated her views that the SNP were politicising the two-child gap, and that there was no available evidence to suggest that foodbank usage and increased.

Despite her enthusiasm to prevent Carlaw’s coronation, she has found herself with only one high-profile backer – former MP Ross Thompson. Despite her lack of high-profile support, a poll by the grassroots Conservative think tank Blue Beyond showed in late January that 44% of Scottish Conservative members were backing Ballantyne, and only 36% choosing Carlaw. It may be the case that whilst Conservative politicians see Carlaw as the best response to Sturgeon, the membership may believe that Ballantyne’s public service record and business experience is what Scotland needs.  That said, given the history of Scottish polls in recent years, we must be cautious in predicting the outcome of the result on a single poll.

The Scottish Conservatives have made significant ground in recent years to become the Party most associated with the Unionist cause, with a weak Scottish Labour leadership up against a popular Ruth Davidson.  With Davidson stepping down, and the prospect of Ian Murray taking more of a front-line role should he succeed in becoming Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, the Conservatives could see themselves slipping back.

As the SNP continue to corner the nationalist vote, and the Conservatives fight with Labour and Liberal Democrats over the Unionist vote, whoever wins the Scottish Conservative vote will have a tough act to follow. Politics in Scotland has never been more interesting – with several elections only months away, and the inevitable ‘IndyRef2’ creeping closer to Westminster, there has never been a more crucial time to keep your eyes trained north.