Patrick Traynor looks at what's next for the SNP after the resignation of Finance Secretary Derek Mackay on the morning of the Scottish Budget
It is not often that the Scottish Budget leads the news bulletin south of the border, but this afternoon it was the top headline on BBC News and trending on social media. Sadly for Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP, interest was not focussed on the latest fiscal package for Scotland, but around the dramatic resignation of Finance Secretary Derek Mackay just a few hours before he was due to stand up in the Scottish Parliament to deliver the Budget.
Mackay, one of the most senior politicians in Scotland, had been widely tipped by many as a potential successor to Nicola Sturgeon but on Wednesday his political career lay in tatters as he was forced to resign after it emerged that he had sent over 270 texts to a 16-year-old boy. Mr Mackay has been suspended by the SNP while further investigations are carried out.
Kate Forbes, Minister for Public Finance and the Digital Economy, was asked to step up at 8:00 this morning to deliver the Budget. She has been widely praised for her delivery and is now being tipped to take over the role as Finance Secretary. Despite her age (Forbes is only 29), she has been seen as a rising star since first being elected to Holyrood in 2017. She is very close to Sturgeon and Mackay and was expected to run as Deputy Leader when Mackay’s opportunity came. There will be natural hesitation to move her to one of Scotland’s top jobs so early in her political career but frankly, no one else has the detail that she has at this stage and negotiations need to move fast with opposition parties given the SNP is a minority government. She has demonstrated excellent political talent and many doubts about her ability to do the job will have been brushed aside.
The loss of Mackay however undoubtedly comes as a huge blow to the SNP and to Nicola Sturgeon. The First Minister has lost a close ally, who was seen as an experienced and well respected MSP throughout the Chamber. The SNP’s previous unbreakable reputation is slowly starting to crack. In the coming months, the Party will be sure to be back in the headlines – again for the wrong reasons - as former leader Alex Salmond will stand trial for allegations that he sexually assaulted ten women, a trial that is set to expose further fractures at the highest levels of the SNP.
All of this occurs in a year that is incredibly important for the Party, and one that could ultimately define the future of the Union for years to come. Whilst latest political polling still provides the SNP with a healthy lead in Scotland, and support for independence is also on the rise, the SNP will be wary of the threat of the legacy of their government being tarnished by scandal. At the same time, their domestic record is coming under increasing scrutiny, with the First Minister criticised for her Party's record on the NHS and divisions growing over the stance on independence. All of this will prove a challenge to the SNP as they seek to win a mandate at the 2021 election to push for a second independence referendum.
