Newington's Public Affairs MD Chris White looks at the first tasks for Boris Johnson's premiership.
When Boris Johnson returns from being asked to form a Government at the Palace tomorrow, a number of challenges will await him.
Appointing his Cabinet and Ministerial team
The first job will be appointing his Cabinet and junior ministers. A considerable amount of work has already been done by the campaign team led by Eddie Lister, Johnson’s Chief of Staff at City Hall (who will be taking the same role in Downing Street) and Mark Spencer MP, a respected backroom operator who will be his Chief Whip.
Everyone who accepts a post in the Johnson administration will need to sign up to the idea that the UK could be leaving the EU without a deal at the end of October, a sharp departure from the views of some who served in May’s Cabinet.
Already there have been a slew of pre-emptive resignations, where Ministers under May have jumped before they are pushed. More will follow tomorrow – so that by the time Boris is handing out jobs, high profile departures will have included the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, Justice Secretary David Gauke, International Development Secretary Rory Stewart, and Business Secretary Greg Clark. Today, junior ministers Margot James (DCMS), Alan Duncan (FCO) and Anne Milton (Education) have also resigned, and others are expected to resign in the next 24 hours. This will make it harder to bring the party together, and Johnson will understand the need to try to have a balance of talent from across all wings of the party.
Key questions remain about what happens to leadership finalist Jeremy Hunt, who irked the Johnson campaign over the last few weeks with his deeply personal accusations of cowardice for failing to debate him ahead of the ballot papers being delivered to members. With a two to one margin of victory, it has been argued that Hunt may be sacked or demoted from his position as Foreign Secretary, but to do so would be an interesting first move. Keeping Hunt as Foreign Secretary would be a sign of stability.
Other leadership rivals are likely to be treated kindly. Michael Gove appears to have had an olive branch extended, so expect to see him promoted from Defra to a more prominent Cabinet role. There are several contenders vying for the position of Chancellor but Sajid Javid appears to be the frontrunner at this stage, with Matt Hancock or Liz Truss an outside bet, though it seems more likely that Truss could become Business Secretary.
Getting the right team in place in No 10
We already know the identity of several of the team who will accompany Boris and Eddie Lister into Number 10. Ben Gascoigne, a former aide in City Hall and the FCO, will be one of three deputy chiefs of staff, alongside Liam Booth-Smith (a Special Adviser at MHCLG) and James Wild, currently a Special Adviser at the Cabinet Office. Lee Cain will become Director of Communications and Munira Mirza, a former deputy mayor, will run the Number 10 Policy Unit.
Former Vote Leave director James Starkie will be heading into Number 10 in a political role, whilst Theresa May’s former Director of Legislative Affairs, Nikki da Costa, will be returning to Downing Street after resigning over the Brexit deal last year. The remaining appointments will be made swiftly to ensure that the team is in place and ready to hit the ground running. With only 100 days before the end of October, there is no time for delay.
Establish a plan for Brexit
Indeed with so little time before Brexit day, the first thing on the agenda will be devising a workable plan for Brexit. Even as recently as last weekend, several plans were doing the rounds. Some want to revive the existing deal, and find a way to ensure that the UK is not trapped in the backstop indefinitely, but Boris appeared to rule out a time limit on the backstop in one of the recent hustings.
A second plan revolves around a standstill transition, while the UK negotiates a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU, though such FTAs take years to negotiate. It is far from certain that the EU would agree to such a plan, even if some agreement could be reached on who would arbitrate any disputes – the EU is adamant that the European Court of Justice would need to be the arbitrating body, but this would be a red rag to the ERG wing of the Conservative Party.
Boris has been clear that “do or die”, the UK will leave the EU on 31st October. And indeed if no changes to the deal can be achieved in his expected summer tour of European capitals, then a significant amount of work will need to be done to get the UK ready for a no-deal exit. For example, the Freight Transport Association revealed over the weekend that contingency measures and agreements implemented ahead of the previous March deadline risk expiring before 31st October.
Equally, several pieces of legislation which the May administration claimed were necessary for the UK to exit the EU on no-deal terms, such as the Agriculture Bill, Trade Bill and Fisheries Bill, have all been in a logjam in Parliament, with officials and Ministers refusing to progress to the next stage of scrutiny for fear of hostile amendments. The Trade Bill had an amendment on a Customs Union inserted in the Lords and hasn’t been seen since March, whilst the Agriculture and Fisheries Bills haven’t progressed since November 2018.
Showcase that the new Government has a domestic plan in place for Government
The Johnson team are acutely aware that an election could happen at any moment, so they have been planning a slew of policies and packages to announce virtually from day one. This ‘proof of life’ of the new Government will be critical to breathe new oxygen into the Conservative brand should an election occur.
It is anticipated that a Budget will be held in September, ahead of 31st October, using the fiscal headroom from decreased borrowing and improved tax receipts to spread cheer ahead of any election. We saw an early version of these promises in the leadership campaign, with a pledge to cut income tax for higher earners.
In today’s victory speech, Johnson referenced his priorities of “better education, better infrastructure, more police, and fantastic full-fibre broadband sprouting in every household.”
Johnson will also have to re-negotiate the confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP, who are crucial to the tiny Government majority of just two, or possibly one if the Government loses the Brecon and Radnorshire election. The DUP said today that “Agreement included a review between each Parliamentary session. This will take place over the coming weeks and will explore the policy priorities of both parties”.
