Newington's Evan Williams examines current speculation about a second referendum on Scottish Independence.

It seems you can’t open a newspaper or watch the news in Scotland without speculation about if or when there will be another referendum on Scottish Independence. You could be forgiven for feeling uncertain about where this debate is going.

The next few weeks will see continued speculation with some of the wilder notions expressed by people on the fringes of the independence movement. The leadership particularly First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will remain teasingly equivocal saving any definitive announcement for her party conference speech 17 or 18 March.

There are two principal forces driving this renewed speculation, the first is straightforward old fashioned politics. A politics polarised around which side of the independence debate you are on suits both the SNP and the Scottish Conservatives. Both sides are determined that it remains the salient political issue in people’s minds in the lead up to Scotland’s Local Government elections in early May. Meanwhile Scottish Labour and the Scottish Liberal Democrats would prefer attention to be focused on local issues and local government finance. In the battle for attention they are losing out to the drama created by speculation about the constitution. As a political tactic it does seem to be highly effective with both the SNP and the Conservatives set to make significant gains in local government, principally at the expense of Labour.

The second is more to do with the internal struggles within the ruling Nationalist Party. Around the last referendum the SNP saw tens of thousands join the party, attracted to the cause of separation, many of them are impatient. The risk for the leadership is both that those people start to drift away or lose interest and perhaps more importantly, the iron discipline which has propelled the SNP to continued electoral success begins to erode. The SNP’s success to date has hinged on the delivery of a clear and sustained strategy over more than 10 years – consolidating power and demonstrating credible leadership in order to ‘normalise’ the idea of independence as a natural and perhaps inevitable state for Scotland. No one can doubt the SNP’s mastery of political management and it would be a serious mistake to underestimate their capacity in this regard.

If there is to be another referendum soon it is likely to be announced at conference, thereafter the process will begin in earnest with a debate in the Scottish Parliament in which the SNP and Greens combined can win the vote. This would then lead to negotiations with the UK Government and Parliament over the details under a Section 30 order. After that it’s likely back to the Scottish Parliament to agree the details of the question and timetable and a referendum early in 2018.

If the First Minister decides not to pull the trigger on another referendum she may well feel the need to offer something to energise the membership and keep the debate alive in her conference speech. Look out for language that threatens but does not commit to another referendum.

Newington will be closely monitoring this and other political developments in Scotland. If your business is affected by decisions made in Scotland please contact Evan Williams, our Head of Scotland Office, on 0131 550 3744 or [email protected].