Our Head of Scotland Emma Megaughin looks at the election campaign unfolding in Scotland.

There is no doubt that Brexit is the core defining issue of the upcoming General Election. Recent polling by YouGov highlights that as many as 39% of voters polled across the UK believe ‘Britain leaving the EU’ is the most important issue in determining how they will vote. Health came a staggeringly distant second, on just 14%.

In Scotland, General Elections are always fought on different grounds, and 2019 is no different; it is perhaps the only part of the UK where Brexit may not be the defining issue of the campaign. Scotland has the added dimension of having a nationalist party in minority government who want to hold a second Scottish independence referendum (Indyref2). Whilst the majority of voters in the rest of the UK appear to be voting solely based on their desired outcome for Brexit, the SNP are campaigning for both Remain and pro-Indyref2. The UK Government taking Scotland out of the EU, despite 62% of voters opting to Remain, provides a solid justification for demanding a new independence referendum so soon after the previous one. But herein lies the potential problem for the SNP.

If the remain vote splits between the SNP and the Lib Dems, the SNP will have lost the right to claim that there is enough support for a second independence referendum.  But Brexit also lends itself to the conundrum that there will be supporters of independence, and thus potential SNP voters, who also voted to Leave the European Union.  Secondly, there will be Remain voters who are tempted by the SNP's stance on the EU - but are hostile to independence.

The other danger of course is that voters are so fed up of referendums and elections that the sheer thought of holding another divisive vote is something they are not even willing to contemplate. Prioritising independence could also be a gift to the Liberal Democrats if it means allowing them to define themselves as the party most identified with opposition to Brexit.

While the SNP campaign focusing on Indyref2 gifts the Tories the campaign it craves - to lead the defence of the Union - the Tories have lost the momentum, spark and appeal they gained under Ruth Davidson, who stepped down as leader of the Scottish Conservatives weeks ago. Richard Leonard has also failed to make an impression on the Scottish electorate for the Labour Party.

The hope for the SNP is that Scottish voters are so fed up with how Westminster has handled Brexit that there will be a shift in support for Scottish independence or, at least, the option to let Scotland decide its own future. Scottish people do not like being dictated to from Westminster and being denied the right to choose – whichever side of the independence fence people sit on.

On the other hand, it is often forgotten that a third of SNP voters backed Brexit in the EU referendum. Whether or not this diminishes their support for Scottish independence remains to be seen. Add to this the fact that Scotland has a large number of genuinely marginal seats. The most marginal seat in the country - North East Fife - is currently held by two votes by the SNP who will be desperate to keep it from the Lib Dems. A dozen seats are truly marginal, with majorities of under one percent and only 13 of Scotland’s 59 seats have a percentage majority which is into double figures.

It is also important to remember that even if the SNP ‘lose’ the General Election in Scottish votes, this will by no means signify a loss of support for the SNP at Holyrood. Instead, people will likely be voting with Brexit as the sole issue and no doubt severe referendum fatigue. If the SNP sweep the board at the General Election next month, and capitalise on the Brexit uncertainty in 2020 to win a majority at the Holyrood Elections in 2021, the pressure to grant another independence referendum may become impossible to ignore.