Newington's Nick Jeyarajah looks at the prospects of the Liberal Democrats ahead of the General Election

Brexit has provided the shot in the arm that the Liberal Democrats have been searching for. Cast your mind back to 2015 when the loss of 49 of their 57 seats, including cabinet ministers Sir Vince Cable, Sir Ed Davey and Sir Danny Alexander, saw the party cast into Parliamentary irrelevance. Another casualty of that vote was Jo Swinson, who this year leads a rejuvenated party into an election with an ambitious campaign pitch of becoming the next Prime Minister.

The message is simple – want to remain? Vote Lib Dem. The election of Swinson as party leader in July this year solidified the party as the unequivocal friend of the 48%. In September, its conference voted to go beyond demanding only a second referendum and pledged to revoke Article 50 in the (unlikely) event of a Lib Dem government.

The election arrives at the end of a glittering 18-month period for the party. The local elections of 2018 and 2019 saw the Lib Dems gain a total of 780 councillors, before beating Labour and the Conservatives into second place in May’s European Elections. In Parliament, their numbers have ticked up from the 12 elected in 2017 to 20, benefiting from the rolling crises in the two main parties and the capitulation of the struggling Change UK, not forgetting the by-election victory in August.

Despite Swinson’s bold pitch for the top job, a Lib Dem return of anything like pre-2015 levels (perhaps 40-50 seats) is likely to be the best that can be hoped for. The “Remain Alliance” agreed with the Greens and Plaid Cymru could precipitate some moderate successes, as seen in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election. Their Brexit stance could also help them north of the border as a genuine challenge to the SNP. Though this is far from Swinson’s beyond-speculative hopes of a majority, it is a potentially pivotal tally of MPs to hold in what is likely to be a hung parliament of one form or another.

Would they be willing to enter a coalition and form a government? Swinson says no. But their staunch commitment to blocking Brexit could yet see the formation of an informal anti-Tory coalition (read as: every other party) to perhaps deliver a referendum with remain on the ballot.

In the midst of the Brexit circus, a future challenge looms. As the party welcomes wandering Remainers, lost in the stormy realignment of British politics, it must decide what it can be beyond Brexit.

The defection of Phillip Lee hinted at this tricky future. When Lee, a Conservative MP since 2010, crossed the floor to join the Lib Dems in September, his arrival was met with dismay by LGBT+ campaigners in the party who described him as “homophobic.” Its flocks of new voters, too, will need to be retained if the party wants to continue its growth beyond Brexit. Building a coherent identity beyond a common attitude to Europe is something Lib Dems might prefer not to think about at present.

Right now however, there are votes to be gained in constituencies across the UK and a battle to prevent Brexit that could yet drag onwards. As long as it does, there’s a phrase that will continue to be plastered in yellow to catch the eye of Remainers everywhere: “Bollocks to Brexit.”