The General Election was shocking to many on these shores, and have provoked much questioning on the implications of the new political landscape for the UK’s Brexit negotiating stance. All the while, our negotiating partners across the channel are watching on in disbelief. The Newington/Cambre Brexit Taskforce examines the reaction, in Brussels and the UK, to the result of the election.

The view from Brussels

Time’s run out – but doors are open

On 9 June, many in Brussels chuckled. Theresa May’s campaign, started with accusations and the EU as the enemy, backfired. She lost the gamble to strengthen her majority and mandate for a hard Brexit. But the election also raised eyebrows in Brussels. A hung UK parliament means delays and more uncertainty. That is not what either side was hoping for.

Commissioner President Juncker and Chief Negotiator Barnier swiftly pointed out that the EU is ready to go and time is of the essence even though he joined MEPs from across the spectrum in their doubt that the UK can start talks soon and be a strong and stable (hence reliable) negotiating partner. One year after the referendum and 22 months from the deadline, that is not good progress. If anything, the election brought back the debate to whether Brexit will actually happen or at least what kind of Brexit we will actually see. Rumours have surfaced that may herald a soft Brexit – looking to remain in the Customs Union, or even in the Single Market.

Echoing the less popular (but similarly influential) German Finance Minister Schauble, France’s new President and Europe’s latest golden boy Emmanuel Macron, said that the “door is always open” for the UK to come back – though soon it could be too late. Theresa May, at the join press point, only replied that the UK wants a deep and special partnership, though everyone in Brussels is increasingly puzzled about what this actually means. European Parliament’s Brexit chief Guy Verhofstadt followed suit, but warned that an open door would not come for free.

Keep calm and reform

Brexit is not slowing down the Union. During a tumultuous UK election campaign the EU sat back and relaxed. Brussels moved forward on key files and enjoyed a reinvigorating Macron effect.  Meanwhile London struggle to focus the electorate on Brexit and suffer two tragic terrorist attacks that reminded everyone of the dramatic urgency and necessity of security cooperation.

Macron’s landslide win in the first round of the French parliamentary vote was perhaps more unexpected than May’s defeat and the exact opposite in terms of impact. After his presidential win, the repeated strong support for a pro-EU agenda in one of the core countries of the Union relieved Brussels and completed a reversals of position with London.

The EU is not a ship to jump anymore, it just needs some repairs. And without British strings, Brussels is delivering more integration on defence in the form of a common fund and a shared EU command centre, as well as moving to establish an EU prosecutor, closing in on trade deals with Mexico and Japan, and preparing to strike others with Chile, Mercosur, and Commonwealth’s Australia and New Zealand. With CETA ready to apply provisionally, the ECJ Singapore Opinion defining and enhancing the EU’s trade powers, and President Trump leaving the climate change scene to the EU and China, Brussels seems again ready to be – without the UK – the Global Union that May had fabled.

Now let’s get to work

Negotiations are set to finally start next week, but no doubt delayed from Monday. A rejuvenated General Affairs Council – once one of the most powerful ‘formations’ of the Council, and now the body responsible for assessing ‘sufficient progress’ to move talks to the next phase – adopted the EU negotiating directives on 22 May. These restate and tighten its red lines and priorities. Everyone knows the drill now: citizens’ rights and paying the Brexit bill first, EU-UK trade agreement later, ECJ jurisdiction for the transition needed.

With the UK side at odds on all points throughout the election campaign, the EU rigidly standing its ground, authoritative voices warn that although the elections revamped ‘Bremainers’ and made soft Brexit more likely, a no-deal and pitfall scenario should be prepared before it simply happens. With EU moves to strip Euro-denominated clearing and EU agencies from London, the UK looking evermore divided, and the Commission ending budget rebates and slapping misbehaving member states with infraction procedures over migration quotas, good vibes could soon become earthquakes on and between both sides of the Channel.

The view from London

On June 9 Westminster woke up, rubbed its eyes and wondered whether the hours that followed the General Election’s exit poll had been a dream. They hadn’t.  Theresa May’s worst fears had been realised as her majority Government went into reverse and her leadership of the Conservative Party was crippled.  Meanwhile Jeremy Corbyn was cock-a-hoop with the palpable joy of a six-year-old in a sweet shop as an increase of 32 seats further increased his personal mandate, although didn’t give him the keys to Number 10. 

Suddenly the Tories were tearing themselves apart looking for a reason to explain their catastrophic failure to turn an early poll lead of 24 points into an increased majority, and Labour were a picture of unity.  We had entered a parallel universe with commentators gingerly feeling their way through a world turned on its head.  Beyond the often myopic discussions on who should take responsibility for which bit of the toxic May campaign, and the thoughtful, though embryonic conversations on the future of the ‘youth’ vote – there are a few things that we do (for now) know…

Brexit doesn’t mean Brexit

Beyond May’s stock response that an increased majority would strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations, there were conversations in the build-up to polling day about the likely character of the backbenchers and their influence on the debate.  An expected majority, dominated by Brexiteers, would take Brexit in a much harder direction than one dominated by Remainers, it was argued by some. 

While we have some fresh faces on the Conservative backbenches they are fewer, predominantly from Scotland and in a severely diminished Parliamentary Party. Without an overall majority a Conservative Government must be reliant at the very least on the Opposition parties not voting against them at once – hence the attraction of securing support on big ticket items through a confidence and supply arrangement with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which would give a working majority of 13. 

With the majority of Scotland having voted to remain in the EU and the DUP calling for mutual access to markets in the pursuit of ‘common interests’, this would appear to suggest that the UK will go for a ‘softer’ Brexit, especially when it is factored in that Philip Hammond is staying in place as Chancellor and ardent Europhile Damian Green has been appointed as First Secretary of State. 

The trouble with this analysis is that it fails to consider that there is a strong cohort of Conservative Brexiteers still on the backbenches whose power is arguably redoubled by the parliamentary arithmetic.  Add to this the appointment of Brexiteer MP ringleader Steve Baker as junior minister under David Davis in the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) together with Michael Gove’s return as Secretary of State for Environment and Rural Affairs and you can see that resistance to any softening of the Government’s position on the fundamental principles of Brexit will remain strong.  The appointment of Baroness Anelay, a Conservative peer with a very internationalist outlook, to DExEU provides an element of counterweight to Baker but the overall picture is one of tension rather than unity.

It’s not all about Brexit

Just like our friends across Europe there is more that preoccupies us Brits than Brexit and that was thrown into stark relief during this General Election.  The Conservative Party may have wanted to focus on the leadership of May and upcoming negotiations, for better or for worse, but the electorate was crying out to hear more on the next Government’s plans for healthcare, housing and education, in particular, and its vision for Britain.  The ramifications of the result for Brexit will be profound but it would be a mistake for people in Brussels to think that the referendum result has been thrown into doubt and ‘Breturn’ is on the cards at this stage.  The Lib Dems were the only national party to campaign on the ticket of a second referendum and although they increased their number of MPs from eight to 12, their vote share went slightly down.  

We live in uncertain times

All that said, the resignation of Tim Farron as leader of the Lib Dems has led to speculation that there might eventually be a deal with the Conservatives.  On the face of it this would go against the Lib Dem manifesto pledge not to ‘enter into coalition with either Theresa May’s Conservatives or Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour,’ but note the specific reference to a ‘coalition’ and to ‘May’, and the drawn out process in negotiating with the DUP.  All considered a deal of sorts at some point after the new Lib Dem leader is appointed is not beyond the realms of possibility, if May does not survive a full term and/or the relationship with the DUP breaks down. 

But there are substantial hurdles. One is provided by the hard-core of Brexiteers in the Conservative Party, who would shout blue murder at any sign of a ‘Breturn’ by the back door and would quite possibly be angry enough to side with Labour in a vote of no confidence – igniting another General Election. Another hurdle is the preference of many Lib Dems for the centre-left over the centre-right, and the justifiable fear among Lib Dems that any deal that props up an already unpopular Conservative party would re-toxify the Lib Dem reputation at a time when they are only starting to escape the legacy of the 2010-2015 coalition.

The Queen’s Speech is happening next week

After several days of uncertainty the date of the Queen’s Speech has been agreed for Wednesday 21st.  The speech itself is usually brief, but expectations are for a severely pared back legislative programme that leaves less room for conflict.