The Newington/Cambre Brexit Taskforce examines the reaction, in Brussels and the UK, to the triggering of Article 50.
Latest twist in the plot
UK perspective
278 days after the UK voted to leave the European Union, Tim Barrow, the UK Ambassador to the EU, delivered a letter on behalf of the British Prime Minister notifying Donald Tusk, European Council President, that Britain is triggering Article 50. The letter from Theresa May set a conciliatory tone, describing the UK’s desire for the EU to continue to succeed and prosper and for the UK to develop a deep and special partnership with the EU. But – contrary to the stated intention of EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, and subsequent comments from Angela Merkel that the principles of withdrawal must be negotiated before the terms of the new trading relationship can be agreed – the letter emphasised on no fewer than four occasions that discussions on the terms of the future partnership should take place in parallel with the exit negotiations. This is, as UK Brexit Secretary, David Davis conceded on Day One of the two years allocated to negotiate Brexit, “an area of argument”.
EU perspective
Brussels has been ready and waiting for this moment for a while. The notification was received with sobriety which combined a sense of resignation and fortitude: ‘nothing has changed; we are sorry but ready’ was the message. In his statement upon receipt of the letter, European Council President Donald Tusk followed the official line that the “Union will act as one and preserve its interests”, namely minimising uncertainty and impact for EU citizens, businesses and Member States. Whereas he stressed the paradoxical bright side of the UK’s exit – the EU’s unity celebrated in Rome on 25 March for its 60th birthday – Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was less nostalgic, stating that the UK will regret this decision. Meanwhile, the European Parliament, which has regularly warned that it might veto the deal if it is side-lined, published a motion for resolution restating the usual tenets (worse out than in, unity of the four freedoms, etc.) and setting limits to the talks (no trade deal before withdrawal and a three year limit on any interim agreements). Bolstering the EU’s position, even US President Trump’s Trade Representative acknowledged that the UK cannot sign trade deals until its EU withdrawal is complete.
The best of times and the worst of times
UK perspective
A Brexit campaign heavily featuring the slogan to ‘take back control’ will result, in the next two years at least, in a Brexit process which is at the mercy of an alarmingly complex array of actors with divergent motivations and priorities. A fuse has been lit under the process of delivering Brexit that until now has been carefully choreographed – and we can expect fireworks. From the UK negotiating team’s perspective, those factors most likely to create troubling detonations include: how strongly the EU feels compelled to emphasise the differential benefits of being inside the gang to being outside (Tusk dismissing UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson’s ‘have our cake and eat it’ philosophy); the risk of the European Parliament flexing its muscles to disrupt the negotiations (the leader of the largest group in Parliament predicting “we are going to .. complain about almost everything”);and, crucially, the heightened risk to the strength of the Union between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland from the contentious issues that will be raised (Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon calling Brexit “an act of self-harm on a scale barely understood”).
EU perspective
What did not play well in Brussels was the trade-off foreshadowed in Theresa May’s letter between negotiating on the one hand a “deep and special” economic partnership and continuing security cooperation on the other. Coming hot on the heels of a terrorist attack in London coinciding with the first anniversary of the Brussels attacks last 22 March, the EU– with EP Brexit Negotiator Guy Verhofstadt at the forefront – perceived this positioning as a cynical first thrust in the duel and a threat that jeopardises citizen’s safety on the altar of a better deal. Conversely, with pro-EU Presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron on the rise in France, former European Parliament President Schulz running fast for Chancellorship in Germany, and a win against Eurosceptic populism in the Dutch elections, optimism is rising on this side of the Channel. The forced confirmation of Tusk as European Council President and the signature of the Rome declaration including a reference to a two-speed EU even returned Eastern provocateurs to the ranks. Maybe Brexit can be a lesson learned.
Allegiances and betrayals
UK perspective
As noted, negotiations to extricate the UK from the EU are only serving to stir up more questions over the strength of the United Kingdom itself. Nicola Sturgeon is a constant thorn in the Prime Minister’s side - calling for a second independence referendum for Scotland between autumn 2018 and spring 2019 once the Brexit negotiations are concluded but before the process is complete and ‘it is too late to choose a different path’. Despite May insisting that no such referendum could occur before the UK leaves the EU, this week Sturgeon succeeded in winning a vote of support for her plans in the Scottish Parliament , which put further pressure on the British Prime Minister. All the while, instability continues in Northern Ireland with parties failing to form a power-sharing executive following an Assembly election earlier in the month. Friction is only increased following a leaked letter confirming the British Government would honour its commitment (in the Good Friday Agreement of 1998) that Northern Ireland could leave the UK and rejoin the EU as part of the Republic of Ireland after Brexit if it voted to do so in a referendum.
EU perspective
EU stakeholders are gearing up for the negotiations. The Dutch Parliament called for close trading relationship with the UK, as did Hungary. CEPS defined the economic impact of Brexit on the EU as “virtually insignificant”. European consumers and trade unions put forward their asks, and European Ombudsman Emily O’Reilly recalled that citizen’s rights and transparency are an utmost priority. Conundrums remain – and not only about the Brexit bill: transitional arrangements would require accepting ECJ jurisdiction, a red line for the UK which will be hard to maintain; Frankfurt seems to be succeeding in drawing financial services that move to the Continent; Italy has earmarked budget and sent Ministers to London to secure the EMA for Milan; and Spain is propping up its representation in Brussels, as well as its firm territorial stances on Gibraltar and Scotland (read Catalonia). With analysts saying that France will take the lead in the Council, but Theresa May calling Merkel on the eve of the Article 50 letter, the usual Brussels political complexity remains undiminished.
What does the next chapter have in store?
UK perspective
Whilst the wheels are set in motion for negotiations in Brussels over the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU, there will be parallel activity taking place in Westminster. This will begin the process of the monumental legislative upheaval that will be necessary for the moment when powers are returned to Whitehall. This spring (probably May) the Queen’s Speech, laying out the Government’s legislative programme for the year ahead, will include a Great Repeal Bill, to bring all EU law onto the UK statute book and putting an end to EU law having authority in the UK.
According to a Whitehall document leaked to the Times this bill will be accompanied by seven separate bills on key areas that will be most affected by Brexit – immigration, tax, agriculture, trade and customs regimes, fisheries, data protection and sanctions. A further six additional bills are also likely to put arrangements in place for life outside the EU on issues such as benefits for EU migrants, nuclear safeguards, arrangements for reciprocal healthcare, road freight, emissions trading and transfer of spending from EU funds to UK government departments.
Such a mammoth legislative programme is unprecedented and will be a significant test for legislators – unsurprisingly opposition parties are already on high alert, with Lib Dem Leader Tim Farron pledging to ‘wage legislative war’ to ensure the Government is held to account and sufficient safeguards are put in place.
EU perspective
The EU timeline will get busy, starting with the need to square the political preferences of the 27. On Friday 31 March, the Council should publish draft negotiating guidelines, then EU Ambassadors will meet in COREPER to discuss them, two Sherpa meetings will tweak them on 11 and 24 April and send them back to COREPER on 26 April, and the EU27 General Affairs Council on 27 March will ready them for final approval by an EU27 ad-hoc Summit on 29 April.
….and the most memorable quote?
UK perspective
“This is an historic moment from which there can be no turning back. Britain is leaving the European Union.” Theresa May
EU perspective
“What can I add to this? We already miss you.” – Remarks by Donald Tusk, European Council President, upon reception of Article 50 notification letter.
If you would like to keep your finger on the pulse of developments and scenario plan for Brexit, the Newington/Cambre Brexit Taskforce offers the full range of government relations, public affairs and corporate communications services to guide and support businesses through the changes to come. Please get in touch with Naomi Harris for further information.
