Newington's Evan Williams speculates on the outcome of Scotland's local elections.
Today's local elections take place in all of Scotland’s 32 local authorities. It will provide an early test of the electoral strength of the parties in the run up to the snap General Election in a few weeks’ time.
The expectation is that the SNP will make significant gains and potentially remove Labour from the few councils where they hold a majority in Scotland – Labour’s relative success in the 2012 elections seems unlikely to be repeated. Support for the Conservatives seems set to harden and it is expected the party will do at least as well, if not a little better, than its Scottish Parliament result in 2016.
The Tories are also likely to capitalise on Ruth Davidson’s popularity and a resurgence of unionism to break the SNP’s stranglehold on parliamentary seats. Currently the SNP hold 56 of the 59 seats but we expect a handful to be clawed back on 8 June.
The constituency of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, formerly held by the Lib Dems’ Michael Moore, will be an important one to watch for the Conservatives, where the local MSP has stood down from Holyrood to compete for the Westminster seat. The Conservatives also hope to challenge the current sitting SNP MP for Perth and North Perthshire, Pete Wishart, where the former keyboard player for Runrig enjoys a somewhat “Marmite” reputation.
The Liberal Democrats are eyeing up Edinburgh West where the local MP, Michelle Thomson, has resigned the SNP whip and won’t be contesting the election. Jo Swinson will also be hoping to make a comeback for the Liberal Democrats in Dunbartonshire East.
Labour has put forward Blair McDougal, former head of the pro-UK Better Together campaign for the hotly contested Renfrewshire East constituency which was lost by Jim Murphy in 2015. This looks like an inspired choice where a robust campaign will be waged, however, many predictions suggest Renfrewshire East should also be a top Conservative target.
Whatever the outcome of the council elections this week campaign strategists will certainly be pouring over the results as they become available during Friday for clues as to what the electorate are thinking ahead of the General Election on June 8.
The Newington Scotland office will be providing analysis to clients on the impact of the Council and General elections if you want to know more about a specific council and what the results mean in terms of political control and priorities call Evan Williams on 0131 550 3744 or email [email protected]
