As the elected Mayor of Greater Manchester approaches 18 months in office, and the half-way point in his initial three-year term, it may be a good time to look briefly at one of the major issues of his term so far, the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework.

Andy Burnham was elected in 2017 with 63% of the vote, winning a majority in all ten Greater Manchester boroughs, including the then Conservative-controlled Trafford. 359,352 people voted for Andy Burnham to be Mayor, enough to give him a considerable mandate. What has been less clear is precisely what powers he has; indeed senior figures in the Town Halls have sometimes questioned, if not necessarily in public, whether the Mayor himself is entirely clear on this.

The Mayor of Greater Manchester has very little in the way of direct executive powers, unlike City Mayors, or the Mayor of London. He gets to choose two Deputy Mayors, but not his Cabinet, which continues to be the ten Greater Manchester council leaders. He can allocate portfolios and appoint various Mayoral Deputies and Policy Leads. What the Mayor can do is employ soft power – to persuade, to bring people together round a table, and to act as a strong and recognisable voice for the region.

Burnham’s next challenge will be getting the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework adopted, identifying locations for 227,000 new homes to meet housing needs over coming years and major new employment sites. For this to happen, it must be approved by the Mayor, and all ten Town Halls. The process commenced in 2015, with a draft version approved in 2017 when no elections were expected. As it turned out, there was both the Mayoral election, and the snap General Election, so the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework became a major talking point. Of particular focus was the Green Belt and the number of new homes which can be squeezed onto brownfield land.

Town Halls have long had different views on these issues and these have not necessarily been split along party lines. Councils with more Green Belt land have generally spilt into those who are not willing to see any Green Belt Development, and those keen to see new jobs and infrastructure, or to increase their Council Tax income from new residents. Burnham himself took a strong view during his campaign, calling for there to be no overall loss of Green Belt, and a much greater focus on the high-density development of brownfield sites.

A further complicating factor is that only one of the ten Council Leaders who sit on the Combined Authority, was in that role when work on the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework began. Nine of the ten Leaders have been appointed since 2016, with only Manchester’s Sir Richard Leese, who is also Burnham’s Deputy Mayor for Business and Economy, providing continuity. Also in 2016, Stockport passed from Liberal Democrat control, to a minority Labour administration, while Labour took Trafford from the Tories in May this year.

So far, the publication of the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework has been delayed three times, firstly after Burnham demanded a radical re-write, then after the change in control at Trafford, and most recently so that revised population figures could be taken into account, which may show that future housing demand to be less than expected. The latest draft is now due in October – whether this happens remains to be seen, but those developing or investing in Manchester will be watching with interest.