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What does the election result mean for Brexit?


What does the election result mean for Brexit?

Newington's Naomi Harris and Lizzy Roberts look at what the election result means for the forthcoming EU negotiations.

Shortly after last night’s exit poll, David Davis, Brexit Secretary, quickly sought to manage the read-out from the 2017 General Election. Theresa May did not need a landslide or even a strong majority to show voters had backed her approach to Brexit, he said – a majority (any majority) would give her the mandate she needed, he added.

That did not happen. Theresa May will now lead a minority government probably based on a confidence and supply arrangement with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party. 

The immediate impact on Brexit could be three-fold.

First, it may affect timings. Team GB negotiators had been due to sit down with officials in Brussels in just over a week’s time. The lead negotiator for the EU, Michel Barnier has already signalled that he is open to delaying the first round of talks to give us Brits some time to get our heads together to decide exactly what it is we want to say (whilst saying nothing about the fact that we still have only two years to complete our exit).

Which leads me on to my second point – the impact on the UK’s negotiating position. We all know the drill, ‘Brexit means Brexit’ but the intellectual vacancy of this concept has been thrown into even starker relief.  Brexit to the Conservatives, under May, means quitting the EU single market, customs union and rulings of the ECJ. Brexit to the DUP means a ‘positive’ relationship between the UK and the EU involving mutual access to markets in the pursuit of ‘common interests’. Brexit to the Labour Party means EU workers’ rights protected alongside tariff-free access to the Single Market.  Brexit to the SNP means a ‘special status for Scotland’ which involves a second independence referendum, to take place before the UK leaves the EU. Brexit to the Lib Dems means another referendum on the terms of the final deal. So Brexit may well mean Brexit, but it is also very much open to interpretation.

Politicians and officials sitting in Brussels and across the European capitals will be rightly scratching their heads at how the UK, seen as a bastion of strong and stable (sorry) government has found itself in this position. Coming on the back of what has been one of the worst election campaigns by a sitting party, many will see this as an opportunity for the EU to seize control – either through doubling the number of red lines or adding new requirements to the terms of reference for any deal.

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