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What now for Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP?


What now for Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP?

Newington's Mark Glover considers what lies ahead for the main opposition parties following the election result.

Well that was the night that was? A very unexpected result for Labour and the true winner of the evening is Jeremy Corbyn.

Although Labour isn’t the largest party, Corbyn surpassed expectations and delivered a hung parliament by a combination of inspiring a massive increase in the youth vote and capturing a lot of the traditional Labour voters who voted UKIP in the last election.

Labour also advanced in Scotland as the SNP lost votes and the Unionist parties worked out who was best placed to challenge with a lot of tactical voting taking place to beat SNP candidates, and reduce the chances of a second independence referendum.

Labour will be waiting to hear Jeremy Corbyn’s plans. He has undoubtedly been strengthened and there will be a phalanx of supportive MPs around him as the number of Corbyn supporters increased last night and many moderates will accept that he is perhaps a bigger electoral asset than they first realised. In the immediate short term the leadership issue has been shelved and if there is to be one, it will be at a time of Corbyn’s choosing. Chuka Umunna, a one-time potential leadership candidate, has already dismissed the idea of a challenge.

But expect criticism of Corbyn and the hard left to resurface in September as the party conference looms and fights over the future direction of the Labour Party take place. The ruling National Executive Committee, which is the pre-eminent body when Labour is not in government, will be a hotly contested fight and the outcome of that will give a strong indication of the future direction of Labour policy. I would expect allies of Corbyn to reinforce their positions.

Publically in the short term Labour will continue to keep the pressure up on the Conservatives, who will be nervous of losing more seats to Corbyn if a second poll takes place so soon. Corbyn and his Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell will also be considering who should form their shadow cabinet: we can expect to see some new names and perhaps a few established figures return to serve.

In Scotland, there will be a question mark over the future of Kezia Dugdale as leader due to her perceived political distance from Corbyn. I’d expect to see a challenge to her leadership over the next few weeks with Alex Rowley or Jackie Baillie in the running.

The Lib Dems have a perhaps more immediate problem. Although they increased the number of seats to twelve, the body blow of losing Nick Clegg and the lightweight performance of Tim Farron during this campaign means that I would expect there to be a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. Jo Swinson is likely to emerge as a strong contender and I’d expect to see Lib Dem heavyweights like Vince Cable, Norman Lamb and Ed Davey pushing Farron into an early decision.

Whatever happens in the coming hours and days, cross party political engagement has never been more important. Those that may have written off attendance at Labour party conference in recent years may now want to reconsider, although the focus of the conference will be on internal manoeuvrings.

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